PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Mission Indradhanush will provide full immunization coverage in Bharat from 65% in 2014 to at least 90% children in the next 5 years. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-12; known on 2020-12-25.

Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-25; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.

After the end of this phone call with Vayama, I will be able to successfully book my flight tickets on their website the first time I try to do so. ( 60% confidence )

Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-11; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-11.

SpaceX to recover first stage of an orbital rocket after ocean barge landing in first half of 2016 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by mortehu on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.

Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.

The Shanghai Composite will fall below 3000 before the end of the week ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-13.

The S&P 500 will fall by more than 1% on January 11, 2016 ( 87% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-12.

The VIX index will go above 35 by April 1, 2016 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-04-02.

The VIX index will go above 30 before February 1, 2016 ( 35% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.

Blackstone's stock price will go below $20 before January 1, 2017 ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.

New Mersenne prime to be discovered by January 1, 2020 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.

The Shanghai Composite will fall by more than 2% on Monday, January 11, 2016. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-10; known on 2016-01-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11.

Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2026-01-10.

I am still at SFDC in 5 years ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2020-08-22.

I am still at SFDC in 3 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.

I am still at SFDC in one year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2017-01-03.

Ten wins in Haylee (3p) v. Ten (1p) on OGS ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2016-01-11; judged wrong by Jach on 2016-01-10.

I will be accepted for an interview at that type foundry, after having written, just for my application, a font previewing app with the tools they use. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Rory O’Kane on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-01-30.

Bear Market in the USA: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 to experience at least 20% decline from peak in 2015. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-31.

Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

The FANG group will have their valuations cut in half from their 2015 peak. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.

By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.

Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-11.

Malheur insurgency to be resolved within a week. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-16.

Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.

I will switch away from Sublime Text as my primary editor before 2017 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.

Oman Crude will trade at an average price of below $30 for the first 6 months of 2016. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.

By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-07; known on 2028-01-01.

By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-12-31.

Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.

China's Shanghai Composite Index will be down 33+% YTD ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

Bharat real gdp growth rate at 8 % in 2017 ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.

Bharat real gdp growth rate at 7.8 % in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.

100% IPV6 deployment by 2020. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-01-08.

Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by phreeza on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by iCrown on 2017-09-25.

Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07; known on 2026-01-01.

I will not watch any more of The Expanse before 2016-02-09 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 17 comments )