There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011.

Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

  • Jack estimated 75% on 2009-10-14
  • bogdanb estimated 30% on 2009-10-14
  • Arenamontanus  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
  • Arenamontanus  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • Arenamontanus estimated 50% on 2009-10-14
  • ChristianKl estimated 70% on 2009-10-15
  • JFE estimated 41% on 2009-10-15
  • anonym  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 60% on 2009-10-17
  • NineteenHalves estimated 30% on 2009-12-03
  • gwern estimated 85% and said “mechanical problems endlessly plague iton 2010-07-31
  • gwern estimated 15% and said “apparently got this one backwards as wellon 2010-10-17
  • kallman estimated 65% and said “Their luck has improved somewhat but I think they’re going to delay longer than that.on 2010-11-23
  • gimpf estimated 30% on 2010-12-13
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 20% on 2011-04-05
  • fergus estimated 5% on 2011-08-18
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 20% on 2011-09-04
  • Laurent Bossavit said “tags: science, higgson 2011-09-04
  • Ken estimated 10% on 2011-09-10
  • gwern estimated 1% and said “latest news is very negative. if LHC ever does, which is looking doubtful, it won’t be any time soonon 2011-09-11
  • army1987 estimated 20% and said “Maybe by Christmason 2011-10-03
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-31.

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