There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011.
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.
- Jack estimated 75% on 2009-10-14
- bogdanb estimated 30% on 2009-10-14
- Arenamontanus judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
- Arenamontanus judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
- Arenamontanus estimated 50% on 2009-10-14
- ChristianKl estimated 70% on 2009-10-15
- JFE estimated 41% on 2009-10-15
- anonym judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
- anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
- anonym estimated 60% on 2009-10-17
- NineteenHalves estimated 30% on 2009-12-03
- gwern estimated 85% and said “mechanical problems endlessly plague it” on 2010-07-31
- gwern estimated 15% and said “apparently got this one backwards as well” on 2010-10-17
- kallman estimated 65% and said “Their luck has improved somewhat but I think they’re going to delay longer than that.” on 2010-11-23
- gimpf estimated 30% on 2010-12-13
- Sandra Åhlén estimated 20% on 2011-04-05
- fergus estimated 5% on 2011-08-18
- Laurent Bossavit estimated 20% on 2011-09-04
- Laurent Bossavit said “tags: science, higgs” on 2011-09-04
- Ken estimated 10% on 2011-09-10
- gwern estimated 1% and said “latest news is very negative. if LHC ever does, which is looking doubtful, it won’t be any time soon” on 2011-09-11
- army1987 estimated 20% and said “Maybe by Christmas” on 2011-10-03
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-31.