PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 1.8994e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts ( 35% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.1675 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 20% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 45% confidence; 9 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.02166 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 45% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 45% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 1.8994e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts ( 35% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.1675 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 20% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than orequal to 1.4922e-5 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 45% confidence; 9 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.02166 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
Will the Brier score on all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts be greater than or equal to 0.17085? ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-02.
I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.
[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known on 2022-09-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-26.
There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2022-09-25.
In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24; judged right by gwern on 2022-09-24.
I will resolve all of the predictions I will make today once they are running out, within one week of them running out (for events that have a resolution deadline within one week of the end of SERI MATS). ( 40% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-22; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-22.
I will not drink so much soylent that I will feel sick before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
I will play a video game on my laptop before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
After the SERI MATS program, I will estimate that I would have paid all my money to participate in it. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
I will buy and use the Z3 fold as my new phone. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
I will never eat a candy bar again during the SERI MATS program. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
I will use the lightcone nap room at least one more time, before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 97% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
There will be another event at the Rosegarden Inn that I will go to during SERI MATS. ( 98% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
There will be SERI MATS 3, within 2 years. ( 82% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2024-07-28; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
Will I make a prediction in prediction before the end of the SERI MATS program after today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-09-16; known on 2022-09-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2022-09-16.
[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 23% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 25% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.
[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 22% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.
[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 20% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.
No danish general election will be called in the next week ( 75% confidence )

Created by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-08; known on 2022-09-14; judged right by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-14.
What We Owe the Future will still be on the NYT best seller list until at least September 14 ( 70% confidence )

Created by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-08; known on 2022-09-14; judged right by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-14.
[We will throw away the current data] Within 1 month ( 10% confidence )

Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known on 2022-09-01; judged wrong by beth_b on 2022-09-13.
Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
House of the Dragon to have a better first episode than Rings of Power, as judged by me ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-19; known on 2022-09-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-04.
Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold in (not “by”) my September 2022 income report. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy on 2022-08-24; known on 2022-10-15; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-09-02.
Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold in my August 2022 income report. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy on 2022-08-24; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by kadavy on 2022-09-02.
The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.
India's GDP for 2021-2022 will be higher than 2020-2021 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sam_jaques on 2021-01-08; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by sam_jaques on 2022-08-20.
I leave the country before mosh starts. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-29; known on 2022-06-28; judged wrong by Wineormilk on 2022-08-15.
North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.
Biden tests negative for covid again by Aug 10 2020 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-07-31; known on 2022-08-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-10.
I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending August 7th. ( 55% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-08; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-08.
Jeannie Marie Wagner will not admit she is wrong when revisit topic in six months https://www.facebook.com/harry.mok.3/posts/10159370606954807?comment_id=10159412084094807 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-04.