Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Summer 2016 to be the warmest summer of US history ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-02.
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Venezuela will announce (not necessarily hold) a recall referendum in 2016 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-02.
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I will read at least 36 books in 2016. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02.
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Russian Federation < 100 B Foreign Exchange reserves ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Craig Wright will prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 0, mentioning Craig Wright by name ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Replacement 24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will have >= 0.1 more accurate gamma ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-09; known on 2017-01-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Replacement Dell 24" G-SYNC monitor will have the same vertical-striping issue ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-09; known on 2017-01-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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75% of the population within Syria's currently recognized borders will be under the direct or indirect control of a single goverment by 2017. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-12-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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On Jan 1, 2017 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2016.) ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-01-01.
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Boston will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-01-01.
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relocation to san francisco in 4 months ( 55% confidence )
Created by jal278 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-03-09; judged right by jal278 on 2017-01-01.
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No Magic card printed before 2017 will explicitly copy a planeswalker (copying a permanent is okay). ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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Every planeswalker printed until 2017 will have at least one planeswalker ability that can always be used (regardless of board state or remaining loyalty). ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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I will switch from Emacs as my primary text editor before 2017. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-01-01.
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Graduate ( 80% confidence )
Created by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2015-07-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 100,000 acres in 2016. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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Alcor's membership will be 11% or more greater in 2016 than 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2017. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-01.
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I will have submitted two or more papers to academic journals by 2017-01-01 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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I will watch 75+/-15 movies I haven't seen before in 2016 (i.e. I will have 1064-1094 IMDb votes on 2017-01-01, since I'm starting this year at 1004). ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-01.
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I will move house again in the next year ( 35% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.
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Pebbles (elderly pet Labrador) will still be alive by the end of 2016 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.
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Read 45 or more books this year ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2017-01-01.
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Bharat will pass France in 2016 in terms of GDP current prices using the IMF as the data source. Bharat is already the the world's 3rd largest by PPP. It will be ranked 6th biggest economy in the world. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2016-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Australia will hold another Parliamentary election by the end of 2016 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Givewell adds a charity addressing existential risk to their top charities list in 2016. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by mortehu on 2017-01-01.
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Scotland to secede from the UK in 2017. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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16-32 faithless electors ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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China's Shanghai Composite Index will be down 33+% YTD ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft “got” social networking better than Google. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Nate Silver will become a public expert on climate change statistics by the year 2016 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Segways will make a comeback before 12/31/2016 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2016. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The fed will increase the effective federal funds rate by the end of 2016 by at least .5% ( 61% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-08-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Both major party presidential candidates will express support for softening punishments for drug offenses during the 2016 US presidential campaign. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Barack Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating ≥ 50. (Favorable/Unfavorable) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Paul Farrell, Marketwatch: Wall Street will lose 20% by 2016 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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>32 faithless electors ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Canuck the Crow (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/crow-in-east-vancouver-attack-no-ordinary-bird-cyclist-discovers-1.3247899) to die in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-02-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Amazon Prime will cost $150 per year or less on Jan 1, 2017. Contingent upon no major changes in the Amazon prime system (e.g., no premium service, drones, or changes in shipping rates). Per convo w Chris S, who thinks Amazon is gonna start trying to actu ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2014-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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zcash price is below 1 BTC ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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zcash price is below 0.4 BTC ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Federal Reserve cuts the Federal Funds rate at least once in 2016. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Blackstone's stock price will go below $20 before January 1, 2017 ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.