Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I leave my job by the end of May 2016. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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Views From The Six won't make Pitchfork's “Best New Music” ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-30; known on 2016-05-25; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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Created by ioannes on 2016-05-17; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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Adam's AI will win the AI battleships tournament ( 46% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-06-10; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-10.
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D will get a paper out before F or A ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-09.
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Hammersmith Underground is on boundary zone 1/2 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
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Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 2 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged right by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
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Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 1 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
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Bernie will drop out before California primary. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-07; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-06-08.
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Bernie Sanders will win 60-70% of the California primary vote ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by docskalski on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-06-08; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-08.
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L wins at pokemon against M at the potluck ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-08.
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MealSquares will have a vegan option available by this time next year ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-05-25; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-06-05.
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Drugs are here ( 90% confidence )
Created by wafflepudding on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by wafflepudding on 2016-06-05.
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Collette sends song by June 4th (I doubt she will if not by then). ( 10% confidence )
Created by wafflepudding on 2016-05-28; known on 2016-06-04; judged wrong by wafflepudding on 2016-06-05.
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I will have at least three more papers published by June of 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-02.
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If I still regularly use a laptop in 2015 (at least monthly), then that laptop will run a Linux-based OS (use the Linux kernel). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-07; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-02.
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Stephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by pent on 2017-01-23.
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Bitcoin price reaches $500 before June 2016 (1 BTC ≥ 500 USD) ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.
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Cruz will lose Indiana AND Kasich will lose New Mexico and Oregon ( 50% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-26; known on 2016-05-03; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.
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'Some old coins will move, but they will only be “loosely” linked to Satoshi' ( 66% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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To “prove” he is Satoshi, Craig Wright will move early bitcoins that were mined in 2009, but that are not clearly Satoshi's ie block 12 or later. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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“I would put the odds of an independent [Bloomberg] candidacy for President in 2012 or 2016 at probably sixty to seventy per cent” —Joe Trippi ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-01.
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No portion of Mo-Pac express lanes will be completed and accepting traffic before June 1st, 2016. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-06-01.
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At the end of this semester, I will think I have felt happy for most of it. ( 65% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by azax1 on 2016-06-01.
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Steve Huffman will remain as reddit CEO to the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by InquilineKea on 2016-05-31.
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STD tests come back positive ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-31.
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I will run a 25:00 5k (treadmill) on or before May 24, 2016. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-05-24; judged wrong by azax1 on 2016-05-29.
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Atletico Madrid wins 2016 Champions League ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-05-28.
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Real Madrid wins 2016 Champions League ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-05-28.
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Someone will find an exception-throwing bug in one of the 5000 lines of the PredictionBook source code that I just deployed in the first week. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by Mike on 2016-05-28.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Kolkata Knight Riders win 2016 IPL ( 30% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by Leo on 2016-05-26.
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Kings XI Punjab win 2016 IPL ( 3% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by Leo on 2016-05-26.
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LambdaConf will uninvite Curtis Yarvin before the conference begins ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-24.
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My parents will start looking for a house again within the next 2 years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-21; known on 2016-05-21; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-22.
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There'll be a major virus/spyware story in the next 10 years that's primarily focused on theft of commercial information (financial, passwords, blackmail) ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21.
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Google will release or support the release of a browser-based api for interacting with devices over bluetooth. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by zpinter on 2013-05-18; known on 2016-05-18; judged right by kuudes on 2016-05-21.
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Carl Shulman will point out something I did wrong on my quantitative models post. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-05-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-19.
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Liverpool will win against Sevilla ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-05-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-18.
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Instagram will peak at < 240m users in the next 4 years ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-18.
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The Fort Galt building will not be up within a year of today. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-05-17; known on 2016-05-17; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-05-18.
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“Twitter will hire a bunch of “anchors” to retweet celebrities and politicians…” ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2016-05-17.
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Kretschmann bleibt Ministerpräsident von Baden-Württemberg ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Shevek on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by brslvrsl on 2016-05-17.
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TWOW will be published before GOT season 6 airs. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-07; known on 2016-05-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-16.
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I write Trump post-mortem piece by end of week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-05-16; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-16.
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I finish my nanodegree program by EOD 5/15 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-05-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-05-16.
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No snow in may in #tbay ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-14.