Arya successfully assassinated by the Faceless Men in season 6. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.

EW will respond to the message within one month ( 7% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-06-26.

I will win the Euros sweepstake at work. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-07-10; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-25.

Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jesseh on 2016-11-10.

Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.

Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.

Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.

The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.

Brexit margin of victory is <5% for remain ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.

The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.

Brexit margin of victory is >5% for remain ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.

I read something more important than http://www.visionofearth.org/future-of-humanity/existential-risks/occupy-heaven-potential-humanity-safeguard-future/ today ( 15% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-23.

I will start showing symptoms of norovirus before the end of the day. ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-21; known on 2016-06-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-21.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-20.

ASOIAF : Onggyr ng Jvagresryy ybfg ol ubhfr fgnex naq jba ol ubhfr obygba ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.

bitcoinCAD up june 17 2016 ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-06-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18.

No single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-06-16.

My research this summer will result in a published paper ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-16.

Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.

In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.

In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.

In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.

In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.

In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.

Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jesseh on 2016-11-10.

S06E07 Arya was not actually Arya. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-06; known on 2016-06-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13.

2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.

The Dota 2 6.87 patch will not come out before the Manila Major is over. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by raehik on 2016-04-19; known on 2016-06-12; judged wrong by raehik on 2016-06-12.