Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP pick is Jeff Sessions ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Kasich is Trump's VP pick ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP Pick: Carol Bartz ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP pick is Mia Love ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Jeff Sessions is Trump's VP pick ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Clint Eastwood Trump's VP Pick ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP pick is Mike Pence ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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David Cameron will not formally invoke Article 50 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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There will be at least two Democratic Presidential primary debates for the next US Presidential election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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Sanders endorses Clinton before the democratic convention ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-07-25; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-25.
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Greece will default ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mareyes on 2015-07-13; known on 2016-07-13; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-14.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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I successfully arbitrage PredictIt with >10% pre-tax ROI at the end of the Republican National Convention ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2015-08-12; known on 2016-07-21; judged right by Dapple on 2016-07-13.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Nick wrote the Bernie screed ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-07-13; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-13.
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Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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Sanders will endorse Clinton as the 2016 Democratic nominee. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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Trump pick for VP is Bob Corker ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-12.
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I will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged right by gwern on 2016-07-11.
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Theresa May will be the next leader of the Conservative party. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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There will be a Labour leadership election as a result of the aftermath of Brexit vote ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election happening, Angela Eagle will enter ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Andrea Leadsom will be the next leader of the conservative party ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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I will have a higher average score in math modules than essay modules this year ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-12-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-07-10.
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Murray will win Wimbledon ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-10; known on 2016-07-10; judged right by Waring on 2016-07-10.
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Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be tried before the end of 2015, for the affair he has been indicted today. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by clemux on 2014-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Bernie Sanders to be the next elected President of the United States ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Bernie Sanders to be the next elected President of the United States ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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d33a499b544fa29f0554866ad2db2454 is in active labour during the Bitcoin Halvening ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-10.
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There will be an in-out referendum on the EU in the next parliament. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Conditional on the UK holding an in-out referendum on the EU before 7 May 2020 the winner will be OUT. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Pandora will call me with a “special offer” by 2016-07-01 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-07-09.
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Contrary to game-theoretic concerns, miners will continue to mine bitcoin and the network will not collapse at the halvening due to lack of mining ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Grave Scrabbler will be reprinted in the Magic: The Gathering expansion Eldritch Moon. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-04-04; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-07-09.
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Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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Bill Shorten will be Prime Minister of Australia. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Turnbull will be Australia's next prime minister ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-02; known on 2016-07-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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Michael Gove will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-07.
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Wales wins Euro 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-07-07.
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Stephen Crabb will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-06.
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Liam Fox will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-06.
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The BRICS will pass the G7 in percentage of world GDP in 2016. Data source will be the IMF. As of 2015: 31.86% G7 vs BRICS 30.58%. ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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Bharat's current account deficit will be 0.7% GDP in FY16 owing to lower commodity prices. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-18; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.