Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will submit my upcoming project by April 1, 2016 ( 40% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-01.
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I will go to Colorado in March 2016 ( 99% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-01.
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no more blizzards in march in #tbay ( 59% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-01.
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[OOTS] O-Chul will be alive the next time we see or hear of him ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2014-04-07; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-30.
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[OOTS] O-Chul will be alive the next time we see or hear of him ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2014-04-07; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-30.
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[OOTS] O-Chul will be alive the next time we see or hear of him ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2014-04-07; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-30.
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I will travel to Lyons on Monday ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-26; known on 2016-03-29; judged right by ioannes on 2016-03-29.
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By end of 2015, the 1984 Computer Fraud and Abuse Act would have been amended to remove Terms of Service violations ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-16; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-29.
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By the end of 2015, at least one poll of Bernie Sanders v. a GOP candidate in head-to-head will be done that is respected enough that it will be included by RCP on their Presidential polling list. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-29.
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Bharat's defence exports will at least double to Rs1200 Crore. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2016-03-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-29.
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Is Any one try online class with www.facetofacestudy.com ?? ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by facetofacestudy on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-03-23; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-28.
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Of the 7 satellites of IRNSS satellite navigation constellation, 4 are already in orbit while the remaining 3 will be in place by March 2016. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27.
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The Burea of Economic Analysis March 25 real GDP growth rate for the USA economy in 2015 will be <= 2.10%. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-03-26; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27.
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Grave Scrabbler will be reprinted in the Magic: The Gathering expansion “Shadows Over Innistrad”. ( 64% confidence )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-07; known on 2016-04-02; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-25.
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Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. general election on November 8, 2016. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ren on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. general election on November 8, 2016. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ren on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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New Zealand will vote to change its flag in the 2016 referendum. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2016-03-25; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-24.
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At least one person will take offense to one of our 22nd century protest signs. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-27; known on 2016-04-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-24.
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Starbucks CEO to make an apology for his Race Relations idea or something one of his employees says or does within 1 year. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by nazgul76 on 2015-03-17; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-22.
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At least one of my Inter-Library Loan requests come in while I'm out of the city travelling ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17; known on 2016-04-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-22.
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My upcoming train trip is delayed over 6.5 hours. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-22.
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There will be a pandemic within the next 5 years. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21; known on 2016-03-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22.
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For snow-related reasons I will be told to work from home on Monday. ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-21.
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Soyuz TMA-20M spacecraft carrying the International Space Station crew of cosmonauts Alexey Ovchinin and Oleg Skripochka and astronaut Jeffrey Williams will reach ISS. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-17; known on 2016-03-18; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19.
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Someone else will judge the outcome of this prediction ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-17; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.
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Someone else will judge the outcome of this prediction ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-17; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.
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Donald Trump sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.
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Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to the [0, 0.25%] range at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-03-17.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to below zero levels (i.e. a range that includes below zero levels) at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17.
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Someone else will judge the outcome of this prediction ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-17; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.
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Google will have had the biggest market capitalization in the USA at some point before February 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-17.
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I get 3 A*'s in mocks. ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-03-16.
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I get A*A*A in mocks. ( 20% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-03-16.
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Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
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Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
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Bernie Sanders sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-16.
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Bernie will drop out before Ohio & Florida primaries. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-03-16.
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By midnight on New Year's Eve, I will have fewer than 1000 followers on Twitter ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by roreiy on 2016-03-16.
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I will write >10 blog posts in 2015. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by roreiy on 2016-03-16.
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I will be single (defined either by facebook relationship status or it being blindingly obvious) throughout 2015. ( 65% confidence )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by roreiy on 2016-03-16.
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Rory will attend Sam's birthday party this coming Friday. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-06-09; known on 2015-06-13; judged right by roreiy on 2016-03-16.
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Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
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The fifth match with AlphaGo will go to the end game (as described by the commentators), and then AlphaGo will resign. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-15.
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Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Lee Sedol will win the final game against AlphaGo ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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AlphaGo will win the 5th match against Lee Sedol ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-13; known on 2016-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
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I will submit the 7th DAND project by EOD 3/13 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-03-14; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-03-15.
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more people globally will have cellphones than household electricity in 2015 ( 69% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-14.