Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Paul Ryan faces the democratic nominee in the 2016 US presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Trump will either win the Republican nomination or run as an Independent. ( 53% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-08-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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John Kasich will win the Republican nomination for President ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-08-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Paul Ryan presides over the 2016 Republican Convention ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-13; known on 2016-08-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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US election will be Bush v. Clinton ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush win the GOP nomination ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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Codenames will be SdJ 2016 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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Isle of Skye will be KSdJ 2016 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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Pandemic Legacy will be KSdJ 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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TIME Stories will be KSdJ 2016 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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Trump names his running mate before GOP convention. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-17.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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If TRUMP gets 1237 before convention the GOP elites will do a news conference with somber tone explaining why with all the dangers our country faces they can not in good judgement allow him to be the nominee and deny him the nomination ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietales22 on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-16.
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TheDAO heist on june 16 winds up forcing rollback/transactions reversed ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-16.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be a woman. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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A motion to unbind delegates will be voted on by the full Republican convention ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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The Republican convention will pass a motion to unbind the delegates ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Brokered convention. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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The last two candidates vying for GOP nomination will be Cruz and Rubio. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Pence is younger than 65 years old ( 80% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-16; known on 2016-07-16; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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The redacted 28 pages of the Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 report will not be declassified in 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-16.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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New Tau paper to be published by July 15, 2016 ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-07-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-16.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will start writing at least one new fanfic widely available (such as on fanfic.net) before July 15, 2016. (By start I mean at least chapter available). ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-07-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-16.
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Non-Liberal Prime Minister after the next Australian Federal Election ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-07-16.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Trump choice for VP is NOT Fallin, Kasich, Carson, Rubio, Corker, Sondoval, Pence, Sessions, Love, Gingrich, himself, or nobody. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Jenson on 2016-07-15.
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Trump selects Christie as his running mate. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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Trump's running mate is Nigel Farrage ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Trump pick for VP is Ben Carson ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump publicly and seriously offers VP position to Bernie Sanders and/or chooses Bernie Sanders as VP ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump choice for VP is Mary Fallin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump picks Newt Gingrich for VP ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-19; known on 2017-01-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump pick for VP is Marco Rubio ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP Pick Brian Sandoval ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ivanka Trump. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Martha McSally. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump picks Chris Christie for VP ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump pick for VP is John Kasich ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.