Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Star Wars: The Force Awakens will gross above 2.8 Billion USD globally ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
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Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-07-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-05.
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Juno spacecraft sends images from Jupiter ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-07-04; judged right by jessriedel on 2016-07-05.
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Kevin Durant will sign with the Thunder ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-07-02; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-07-04.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Oman Crude will trade at an average price of below $30 for the first 6 months of 2016. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint an SNP MP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 14% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint a Labour MSP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 29% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint a Labour MP representing a non-Scottish constituency as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint a Labour MEP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 1% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint somebody who is not an elected politician as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 5% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will not appoint a new shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 20% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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ASOIAF: gur nezl bs gur qrnq oernpu gur jnyy ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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ASOIAF Zbgure bs qentbaf unf frk jvgu lnen terlwbl ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Contigent on the Brexit vote beeing >50% for UK leaving the EU, the Pound Sterling will have lost 25% of current (April 25) value within a week after the vote. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brslvrsl on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Oman Crude will trade at an average price of below $30 for the first 6 months of 2016. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Oman Crude will trade at an average price of below $30 for the first 6 months of 2016. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.
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By July 1, 2016, Younes and Rowe's paper claiming to prove that NP is in BQP will not be widely accepted as correct. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Finland ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Norway ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Denmark ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Iceland ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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The @VegAssist Twitter bot will be banned before July 2016. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Library Genesis will operate through 2016-07-01 ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Bernie Sanders will drop out on or before June 30th ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-06-30; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any EU member state ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Conditional on Brexit, Boris Johnson will be the next British Prime Minister. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by Waring on 2016-06-30.
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R+L=J revealed in episode 10 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-06-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-06-30.
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R+L=J to be confirmed during Season 6 of Game of Thrones ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by BiasedCalibration on 2016-06-30.
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Boris Johnson will be the next leader of the Conservative Party ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-30.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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2016 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: Sam will post 5 or more blog posts. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: I will go to the emergency room, for myself or someone else. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: I will make >5 new drawings that I like enough to post in my Facebook album. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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LSH in season 6 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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S06E10 ends the same way as the Dance with Dragons epilogue. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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(Game of Thrones spoilers) Prefrv oheaf qbja Xvat'f Ynaqvat va frnfba 6 be 7 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-26; known on 2017-06-26; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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CLEGANEBOWL ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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SPOILER GAME OF THRONES ASOIAF. Pbaqvgvbany ba E+Y=W orvat erirnyrq ba F6R10, gur raqvat fprar jvyy or bs vg orvat erirnyrq. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-29; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.