Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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In 1 year, I will believe that functionalism is the most correct theory of mind. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-05-12; known on 2016-05-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-13.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Amazon stock price will reach $700 at some point in 2016. ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by roshni on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by roshni on 2016-05-11.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will have more screentime in 3.0 than in 2.0 (as measured by length in seconds of scenes involving her) ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-11.
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IRNSS satellite navigation constellation will be complete by July. 6/7 Satellites already launched. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-07-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-05-06.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Manchester City wins 2016 Champions League ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-04.
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Today, since I am integrated and centered now, I will get done all of my daily tasks. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-05-04; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2016-05-04.
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Dr. V will ask about T2 mapping and what we're reporting about it. ( 95% confidence )
Created by docskalski on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-05-05; judged wrong by docskalski on 2016-05-04.
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Trump wins Indiana ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-05-04.
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Sanders to upset Clinton in the Indiana primary ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-05-04; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04.
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I will go to San Francisco tomorrow. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-03; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-03.
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Rand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 10% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01 ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-05-02.
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I finish my nanodegree by the end of April 2016 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-05-02.
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Mom and I go to Point Reyes this weekend ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-02.
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My dad and step-mom divorce within the next two years ( 0% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-12; known on 2016-08-12; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-02.
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Lizz will grow to have a negative opinion of her new job within 2 years. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-02; known on 2016-05-02; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-02.
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T will reciprocate for R ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-24; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-02.
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Jon Snow will be alive in some shape or form during Season 6 of Game of Thrones (excluding flashbacks and dream sequences) ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02.
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Mariloup Wolfe will lose her legal proceedings against Gab Roy. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-05-01.
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I will accept an offer for a PhD program at UC Berkeley or Stanford. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-05-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-05-01.
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a formation of UFO that will be seen over a major U.S. city before the end of 2014 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01.
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San Diego State University will finish cataloging the Edward Gorey Collection by 2016. http://goo.gl/W7YUh <— 5k of 25k catalogued. ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01.
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HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.
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Facebook's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-04-28.
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USA real GDP growth rate for 2015 will be 2.30%. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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A confirmed detection of an ET Civlization ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-22; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26.
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Bharat's incremental GDP will pass USA in 2014-15. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-03; known on 2016-05-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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Alibaba will surpass Walmart as world's No1 retailer measured in gross merchandise volume. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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TV soon will come out with super wide-screen 2.35:1 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2016-04-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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Localbitcoins was really incompetent enough to store username/passwords in a way that they could be retrieved, plaintext and the hack on /r/btc right now is real ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25.
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At least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2016. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-04-25.
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I will be diagnosed with Narcolepsy with cataplexy within 1 year. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-23; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-24.
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I will acquire the 2 needed prerequisites to start work at my new job without incident ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-23.
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“ESI” contract to be terminated explicitly before May 20, 2016 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-05-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-04-22.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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0.85 be at duende before 8:51 (based on real time ETA at 19th of 8:36 at 8:24). ( 85% confidence )
Created by TTL on 2016-04-21; known on 2016-04-21; judged right by TTL on 2016-04-21.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Ubuntu 16.04 (or 16.03-5 if need be) released, with gcc 5, won't immediately be unusable colossal failure ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21.
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Between now and April 22nd, 2016 There will be large-scale riots in major US cities, gun confiscation in rural areas, and a financial crisis, possibly not all at once or in that precise order. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-21.
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Eleanor Roosevelt will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.
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Rosa Parks will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.
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Trump wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hilary wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Donald Trumps Wins New York Republican Primary 2016 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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I will pass my second-year review. ( 89% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by spicedpiano on 2016-04-20.
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Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
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Bernie will drop out before New York primary. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-19.