AlphaGo will beat any human it plays for the next 2 years(no handicap games). ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.

AlphaGo will beat Lee Sodol in the three remaining matches of their initial 5. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by earthbound01 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-03-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.

No human will win at Go again against a top AI ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by c0rw11 on 2016-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-13.

AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.

D and I will walk to Ely tonight ( 0% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-03-12; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-03-12.

Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.

HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for some drugs. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-03-09.

HP MoR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-09.

Home repairs will run more than 20% over budget ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2016-03-09.

Home repairs will run more than 10% over budget ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2016-03-09.

Michael Bloomberg will announce that he is entering the 2016 Presidential race as an independent candidate ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-03-14; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-03-08.

“I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years.” —Jeremy Grantham ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2016-03-07; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-08.

Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Michael Bloomberg to enter the 2016 US presidential election as a candidate. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-08.

HP MoR: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.

HPMoR (up to 98): At some point in the story, cryonics will be mentioned. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter's name ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

HP MoR: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.

I will get to Gold Division in League of Legends before the end of season 5. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-13.

I will get to Gold Division in League of Legends before the end of season 5. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-13.

I will have 100 blog subscribers eight months from now. (aarongertler.net/subscribe) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-03-06; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2016-03-06.

Evil Geniuses will win the Dota 2 Shanghai Major ( 70% confidence )

Created by raehik on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-03-06; judged wrong by raehik on 2016-03-06.

Kasich will drop out of the republican primary race before March 3rd ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by silacoid on 2016-03-03.

Out of the universities that I send out PhD applications to, I will be accepted by at least half. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-03.

Rubio mops up on Super Tuesday, taking more than 60% of the primaries. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-03.

In the Republican primary Kasich to win Ohio, New Hampshire and at least one other state ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-05-15; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2016-03-02.

The Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has only 1 party. (considering local variants of the same party or similar as same party) ( 27% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-02.

The Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has at least 2 parties. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-02.