PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Chelsea will make the Top 4 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-05-20; judged wrong by Waring on 2016-04-19.

I got a perfect score on my algo prelim. ( 66% confidence )

Created by azax1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2016-04-19; judged right by azax1 on 2016-04-19.

I will be not be in a formal, romantic relationship (open relationships included) throughout 2015 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.

I will convince another person to adopt a vegan or vegetarian diet (for a minimum of two months) next semester ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.

I will make it to the police station today in time ( 10% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18; known on 2016-04-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18.

I complete at least one “completionist” cycle this week ( 80% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-17.

I will advance to round 2 of the 2016 Google Code Jam after round 1A. ( 5% confidence )

Created by trishume on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-04-16.

I will not visit Fortuna, CA overnight or longer in the next 5 years. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-15; known on 2016-04-15; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2016-04-16.

No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.

No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.

Oliver Sacks will live into 2016 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15.

Barcelona wins 2016 Champions League ( 40% confidence )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-15.

Benfica wins 2016 Champions League ( 1% confidence )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-15.

Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2015. ( 70% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.

The U.S. budget deficit will be less than 3% of GDP for fiscal year 2015. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by codexaenir8 on 2014-10-14; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.

I will own a large dog ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-04-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by mad on 2016-04-14.

I will not be living in Australia on December 31st, 2015 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by mad on 2014-10-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2016-04-14.

I will receive a promotion or get a new job by 2016 ( 75% confidence )

Created by mad on 2014-10-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2016-04-14.

The Kingdom of North Sudan will be officially recognized by the African Union before 2015. ( 1% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.

“3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.

Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.

PSG wins 2016 Champions League ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-12.

Wolfsburg wins 2016 Champions League ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-12.

At least 12 billion paid 160 trillion free mobile app downloads in 2015 on all platforms combined. ( 16% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11.

I will buy some lego today ( 80% confidence )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-04-11; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-04-10.

I workout tomorrow ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nikola on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-09; judged wrong by Nikola on 2016-04-09.

MercMob not in operation or has less than 100 open mobs 5 years from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-08; known on 2016-04-08; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2016-04-08.

SpaceX to successfully land the first stage on a droneship in the CRS-8 launch. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-01; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.

SpaceX to recover first stage of an orbital rocket after ocean barge landing in first half of 2016 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by mortehu on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.

I will submit my upcoming project by EOD Friday, 4/8 ( 85% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-04-08; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-08.

I run Freedom 24/7 for the next week ( 80% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-04-08; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-08.

There is sufficient depth in the bid logs ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-07.

I will not have eaten any meat intentionally before a month from now. ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Sahil on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by Sahil on 2016-04-06.

Ted Cruz to gain a majority of the delegates from the Wisconsin primary. ( 84% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-06; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-06.

I finish the Nanodegree 5th project by EOD Sunday. ( 70% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2016-03-28; known on 2016-04-04; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-05.

Liberal MLA elected in Saskatchewan Election 2016 ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )