PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will get to class before the girl I passed. ( 98% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03.

I'll get the job ( 80% confidence )

Created by NikiTaylor on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by NikiTaylor on 2014-02-03.

I will do my homework this weekend ( 30% confidence )

Created by NikiTaylor on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-03; judged right by NikiTaylor on 2014-02-03.

I will go to the grocery store today ( 60% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-03.

I will work out today ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-01-31; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-03.

I will go on a date with a girl within the next 3 weeks. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by entropy on 2014-02-03.

The Broncos will win the Super Bowl. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-03.

The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining currencies also abandon the Euro and relaunch national currencies. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.

The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.

The future of the Euro: Pheripheral countries leave, Germany and France lead move to fiscal union. Smaller Euro survives. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.

The future of the Euro: “Euro survives”. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.

Eliezer will mention/recommend the story “The Last Christmas” in the next Author's Note for HPMOR. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ygert on 2014-01-05; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.

At least one person will be banned from #lesswrong in February 2014. (only valid for people who have never before been banned from the channel) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tenoke on 2014-02-01; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by Tenoke on 2014-02-01.

Technoviking will lose the lawsuit about usage of his image ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-02-01.

Activision or EA will announce they have obtained the Homeworld 3 IP by Feb 1 2014. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DaFranker on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2014-02-01.

Volume is less than 1.5 m^3 ( 79% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vasaka on 2014-02-01.

weight is more then 150 kg ( 76% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vasaka on 2014-02-01.

By January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2014-02-01.

NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of January. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.

After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Christian Democrat Party. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by on 2014-02-01.

After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Social Democrat Party. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by on 2014-02-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.

The internet will preach the virtues of open source and/or Adobe updates to me when I request help regarding RAW files and PS. Neither will actually be helpful. ( 90% confidence )

Created by vyctryx on 2014-02-01; known on 2014-02-08; judged right by vyctryx on 2014-02-01.

Ed will join PredictionBook. ( 65% confidence )

Created by vyctryx on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vyctryx on 2014-02-01.

My sayat.me account will be rick-rolled within the week. (http://sayat.me/vyctryx) ( 75% confidence )

Created by vyctryx on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vyctryx on 2014-02-01.

Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.

There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.

There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.

Google will write off more than $2b for Motorola purchase over the next 2 years. ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13; known on 2014-08-13; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-01-30.

nobody will call about bed till 29.01 :( ( 75% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-29; judged right by mimikria on 2014-01-29.

the eval will take a while ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-28; known on 2014-01-29; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-29.

I will have 3 cups of coffee today ( 90% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-28; known on 2014-01-29; judged right by vasaka on 2014-01-29.

My sister will want to do just dance ( 40% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-28; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-01-28.

i'll sell the table today ( 90% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-28; judged wrong by mimikria on 2014-01-28.

I will create a movie for Campus Moviefest this year. ( 40% confidence )

Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-28.

Will come home before 23 ( 90% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by vasaka on 2014-01-28.

My parents will come back tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-27.

We can find a table with two available outlets at Rao's. ( 45% confidence )

Created by tedks on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by tedks on 2014-01-27.

I will level up on habitrpg this week ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Duyut on 2014-01-19; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-27.

I will have heard of at least one of the top 5 websites on this page: http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1w6ixc/what_is_the_best_website_that_nobody_knows_about/ ( 90% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-26.

my sister will yell today ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-26.

I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14 and last at least 7 days (take 42 naps on the schedule without other sleep, and wake up from the 42nd nap on time). ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-26.

I will not attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-26.

At least 5 wins. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Mares789 on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-01-25; judged right by Mares789 on 2014-01-25.

my mom will not remember to get dinosaur chicken nuggets ( 60% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-01-25.

Someone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it. (OP here https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152167620634598?stream_ref=10) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-01-25.

Emanuel Rylke will not get a job within the next 2 years ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lukas on 2012-05-24; known on 2014-05-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2014-01-24.

Someone will sing me happy birthday tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-01-24; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-24.

I will get my passport this week ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-22; known on 2013-01-24; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-24.

Statistics

Judged Predictions