PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.

Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.

It will snow wednesday ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-01-23.

There will be a snow storm tonight ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-21; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-22.

I'll cause at least five people to start using Prediction Book by the end of today. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22.

Dexter's protégé will kill him before the end of Season 8. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2014-01-22.

I'll complete my first job application ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PaulaWalla on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-01-21; judged wrong by PaulaWalla on 2014-01-21.

I will participate in Campus Moviefest this year. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-21; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-21.

I'll study 2 hours ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mares789 on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-01-20; judged wrong by Mares789 on 2014-01-21.

“Confession Bear” will be permanently banned on reddit.com/r/adviceanimals before 2014 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-01-20.

Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.

United States military to use missiles in Syria before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-08-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.

I will go to the LessWrong social meetup tonight ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atroche on 2014-01-17; known on 2014-01-17; judged right by atroche on 2014-01-20.

I won't end up going to the Alexis Ohanian event tomorrow ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-19.

Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.

The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.

I will read this book, Nonviolent communication ( 100% confidence )

Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-18.

I will read this book, Nonviolent communication ( 100% confidence )

Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-18.

I will read this book, Nonviolent communication ( 100% confidence )

Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-18.

I will read this book, Nonviolent communication ( 100% confidence )

Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-18.

Water reserves in Victoria, Australia will be back up to 100% by 2013 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by EvanB on 2014-01-18.

New Year's Resolutions Rebooted: I will keep all 3 of my rebooted resolutions for one whole week, from January 9 through January 15. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-09; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-16.

If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin's diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by wedrifid on 2014-01-16.

By January 1, 2014 I will have published at least one paper that involves Artin representations where I am the sole author. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-16.

I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2014. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will complete Remembering the Kanji 1 before 2014. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will post a formal version of my primary argument for simulation-theism on Less Wrong before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 38 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will complete all 994 lessons of My Spanish Coach for Nintendo DS before 2014. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will complete Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Among Thieves, and Drake's Deception for PS3 in Spanish before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

During a single 24 hour period, I will write 2,200 kanji from memory with an error rate of 10% or less before 2014. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will complete all Duolingo lessons for Spanish before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

Shenmue HD will be released before 2014. ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will get an A or better in CSE 205: Object-Oriented Programming and Data Structures. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will get an A or better in MAT 265: Calculus for Engineers I. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

b4a6a4800b48078db172085e8120f0f6 acf7653e0314bb48ef389b8f115e0806db18b05354c5ead3c5af090681b9dafb4fce2fbbbdce8b8f0034df038ef88be999980847eac05aa1adfc730c32361d33 ( 23% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-12; known on 2014-01-15; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-15.

When I get to class, there will be exactly 5 people there. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15.

When I get to class, there will be at least 10 people there. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15.

When I get to class, there will be at least 5 people there already. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15.

Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.

Pandora Market will shut down / disable withdrawals within the next week. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-15.

Austin will get a 15" Macbook ( 85% confidence )

Created by flyingfox on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-01-21; judged right by flyingfox on 2014-01-15.

GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate two years from today. ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2014-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-01-15.

By 2014, US will have passed to law to give a tax break to corporations to bring their money back home ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-14.

HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 1 month, have 215-792 reviews posted on FF.net ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-14.

HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 7 days, have 66-383 reviews posted on FF.net ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-14.

Weed will not be legalized in California for the next 5 years ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aurasprw on 2009-10-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2014-01-13.

GSoC 2013: “Haskell Qt Binding Generator” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.

GSoC 2013: “Extending GHC to support building modules in parallel” ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-13.

GSoC 2013: “Parallelise `cabal build`” ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.

GSoC 2013: “Improve the feedback of the cabal-install dependency solver” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.

Statistics

Judged Predictions