PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

This site would benefit from having a hashtag functionality for predictions, allowing for easy searching and being able to look up prediction accuracy for specific hashtags. ( 90% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.

I will ask the girl I am seeing on friday to be my girlfriend by the end of the weekend. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.

I will watch two or more video lectures tonight. ( 40% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-13; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.

I will watching this movie by 9 (run time ~100min, imdb categorizes it as an action drama, rating between 7.7 and 8.1) ( 85% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-13; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.

August was just joking that Barolo is a scam, and won't be able to recommend a great cheap alternative. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Benquo on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by Benquo on 2014-02-15.

CFAR will get a grant from the American Mathematical Society to fund SPARC 2014. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15.

I will not have a Valentine on Valentine's Day. ( 85% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-15.

“When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-02-15.

I will speak (using any nickname) more than 120 lines in #lesswrong before 2014-02-15 ( 0% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-15.

When the Wikimedia Commons RfC on the MP4 format closes, the majority of the !votes will be against any use of the format ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Vulture on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-15.

I will not to do handstand by myself in gymnastics today ( 80% confidence )

Created by captiancreeper19 on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-13; judged right by captiancreeper19 on 2014-02-14.

Adina and Baaboo will have dinner with Maxine and me tonight. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Benquo on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-10; judged right by Benquo on 2014-02-14.

I will go to sleep before 5:00am. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-14.

Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.

I will leave here by 11 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-08; known on 2014-02-08; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-12.

I will leave here before 10. ( 40% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-07; known on 2014-02-07; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-12.

My pal Max Misyura is an MBTI INTJ . ( 25% confidence )

Created by timujin on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by timujin on 2014-02-12.

Trishna's mail will be Jury Duty ( 85% confidence )

Created by Iksorod on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-12; judged wrong by Iksorod on 2014-02-12.

Regardless of the outcome of the Dorner manhunt, drones will be praised for their value in said manhunt by at least one news outlet monitored by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism within one year of today. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2014-02-11.

I will be able to easily slide an index finger between my wrist and my watch that I haven't worn since before I started my transition. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged right by ZLM on 2014-02-11.

Between now and the end of May, I will miss fewer than ten lectures ( 40% confidence )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-02-10.

someone will come bother me in my room today ( 90% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-02-07; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-09.

my intake next tuesday will take around an hour ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-29; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-09.

The deep dark web will come under fire from a murder for hire plot setup on the dark web 'hidden wiki' ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-03-11; known on 2013-09-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-08.

Tomorrow I will eat breakfest before 9 a.m. ( 93% confidence )

Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-08; known on 2014-02-08; judged right by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-08.

I will go see my grandparents this weekend. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-12; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-08.

LiteCoin's double in value (to $50) in the next 30 days. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-06; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-07.

Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least ten women to make prediction book accounts. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-01-29; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-02-06.

Mount Holyoke will have a snow day tomorrow ( 10% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-06.

Denison will have a snow day tomorrow ( 1% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-06.

There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.

I will genotype my son before his 1st birthday. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-02-05.

Electoral Vote Predictor (run by Andrew Tannenbaum) will come back in 2014. (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.

There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.

There will be a snow day at Denison tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.

There will be a snow day at Mount Holyoke tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin's diet (see comments for details) for at least three months in the next two years. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-02-05.

hanoi flat will be at 5th floor ( 75% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by mimikria on 2014-02-05.

V of our things is <2.5m^3 and >2m^3 ( 80% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-29; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by mimikria on 2014-02-05.

rishta will come ( 60% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-02; judged right by mimikria on 2014-02-05.

[mredacteds] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2014-01-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.

[redacted] will ask for a regrade on eir algorithms exam, and get at least 1 point back. ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-15; known on 2014-01-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.

I will be allowed to go to the IEEE conference by my parents. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.

Assuming Bernanke leaves in 2014, Janet Yellen more likely to be Fed Chairman than Tim Geithner ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-04.

My next 10 showers will be cold showers. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.

I will live higher then 5th floor ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by vasaka on 2014-02-04.

My hanoy building would have more than 10 levels ( 65% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-04; judged wrong by vasaka on 2014-02-04.

There will be heavy winds acting up across the United States within the next week ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Nomi on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by Snowshi on 2014-02-04.

Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least twenty women to make prediction book accounts. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-01-29; judged wrong by mitodoteira on 2014-02-04.

The speaker I'm listening to will bring up the fact that people fear public speaking more than death. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03.

Statistics

Judged Predictions