PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

My allergies will clear up by 02/26/2014. ( 80% confidence )

Created by mavant on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-02-26; judged right by mavant on 2014-02-26.

Mt. Gox “strategy” document is not a hoax ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kiba on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2014-02-25.

“The airline industry, of course, will be toast inside of five years.” —James Howard Kunstler ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-06-10; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-25.

Mark Herring to be next attorney general of Virginia. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-25.

Someone will comment on this prediction and recommend me a podcast or audiobook that I don't know of, and I will listen to at least 2 episodes or chapters before 2 weeks. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-10; known on 2014-02-25; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-25.

MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.

MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.

One of the three top comments on the thread I'm about to read will be “gluten free.” ( 80% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-02-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-25.

Rimworld will release a new version (> 254b) by February 1st ( 60% confidence )

Created by atroche on 2013-12-15; known on 2014-02-02; judged right by atroche on 2014-02-25.

Saturday will be super fun ( 100% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-02-24; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-25.

Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early) ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vulture on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-24.

I will go on a date with Nashwa. ( 55% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-04-16; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-02-24.

I will get my lab report submitted by 15:00 today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-02-24.

I will pee for at least 60 seconds. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-02-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-24.

Canada will arrive first in the 2014 Olympics. (ie. number of gold medals) ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-24.

Germany will not reach the proclaimed goal of 30 medals at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ir88 on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by ir88 on 2014-02-24.

Rousey beats McMann by first round armbar in UFC 170 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-23.

Rousey beats McMann by armbar in UFC170 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-23.

Rousey defeats McMann in UFC170 ( 95% confidence )

Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged right by mad on 2014-02-23.

Jacob Wilson wins Pro Tour: Born of the Gods. ( 70% confidence )

Created by ygert on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-02-23; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-23.

i will see bf this week (hopefully) ( 40% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-23.

[KILL la KILL] Ira Gamagoori will betray Kiryuin Satsuki, or join Matoi Ryuko's side, or both, by the end of the series ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-10-16; judged right by Grognor on 2014-02-22.

I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-22.

The unflavored Pedialyte will not taste discernibly worse than the flavored Pedialyte when I try it. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Benquo on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by Benquo on 2014-02-22.

I will finish HPMOR by Friday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-20; known on 2014-02-22; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-02-22.

There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.

There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.

Within one week, the LessWrong post “White Lies” will have 800 comments or more ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Vulture on 2014-02-15; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-21.

I see Naswa on Thursday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-21; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-02-21.

my sister will say something about the magazine I gave her ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-11; known on 2014-02-20; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-21.

I will get to see my boyfriend Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-20; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-02-21.

Conditional on competing in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics, Yuna Kim will win a gold medal ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-02-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-20.

Conditional on the current MP4 RfC failing to gain consensus for use of the format, the WMF will enable uploading in MP4 anyway and be met with community outcry ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vulture on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-02-18; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-02-20.

High Court will rule for a re-election of the WA Senate. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Merinnan on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by mad on 2014-02-20.

Pizza-flavored Pringles contain milk ingredients. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-19; known on 2014-02-20; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-19.

Yuna Kim will compete in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-19.

my stomach will stop hurting by tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-19; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-19.

I will finish chapter four of this book tonight ( 55% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-18; known on 2014-02-18; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-19.

I will finish two chapters of reading today. ( 75% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-18; known on 2014-02-19; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-19.

I will see Tegan by Monday. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-18; known on 2014-02-25; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-02-19.

McCaleb will confirm Mtgox never actually sold Magic cards. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-02-17.

I will go home before noon tomorrow. ( 5% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-16; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-17.

I will go home before monday. ( 65% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-17; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-17.

I will go see my grandparents this weekend. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by Mati on 2014-02-17.

Within two years, there will be some mechanism for direct karma transfer implemented on Less Wrong. (Karma betting, karma bounties, or the like.) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ygert on 2013-08-25; known on 2015-08-24; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-17.

There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.

i will see bf 2maro ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-17.

ill get to see my boyfriend tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-17.

We will have House Council tonight at 21:00. ( 90% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-02-17.

This site would benefit from having a hashtag functionality for predictions, allowing for easy searching and being able to look up prediction accuracy for specific hashtags. ( 90% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.

Statistics

Judged Predictions