PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

During a single 24 hour period, I will write 48 hiragana and 48 katakana from memory with an error rate of 0% before 2014. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-01.

[tredactedw] will win the pie-eating contest. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-01; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-01.

drewmm will complete his reading for his class at 3 PM before that class. ( 40% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-31; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by drewmm on 2013-10-31.

Gwern's real identity is Andre Lahs. ( 90% confidence; 9 comments )

Created by WhoIsGwernAnyway on 2013-10-31; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by WhoIsGwernAnyway on 2013-10-31.

Steve Nash will retire by the beginning of the 2013-14 season. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fistpo on 2012-08-03; known on 2013-10-31; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-10-31.

The “unfortunate” comment was made by [redacted]. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30; known on 2013-10-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.

I will get some unexpected points on Problem 2 of 10-11 algorithms homework. ( 33% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.

My team will win IEEEXtreme. ( 0% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-26; known on 2013-11-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.

In the next arc Taylor will have a second trigger event.[worm web serial] ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-10-28.

There will be > 3 students in my course on saturday who haven't formally enrolled. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mischan on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-10-26; judged wrong by mischan on 2013-10-26.

My friend added me on Facebook. ( 33% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-25; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-25.

The CFAR staff will give me their approval to move forward with the CLP Program in a form substantially similar to what I propose today. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by glennonymous on 2013-09-20; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by glennonymous on 2013-10-24.

The algorithm I specified for Question 2c on the midterm was incorrect. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

Over 95% percent of former student athletes have made a donation to the UB annual fund. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

The bridge to Goat Island will be open. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

Our landline phone will be fixed when we check. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

The Niagara Falls will be lit up when we visit. ( 95% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

More than 1000 known exoplanets by the end 2014 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by mfb on 2013-07-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-10-23.

SR: the dk.onion forums will become inaccessible on or before 22 October 2013 ( 38% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-10-22.

I will get a ticket to the Hillary Clinton event on Wednesday. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-21.

I will drop at least 1 class this quarter. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-12-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-19.

There won't be any questions involving little-omega or little-o notation on the algorithms midterm this week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.

I will get at least 54 points on Part II of the algorithms midterm. ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.

At least one of the Elder Dragon Legends (Nicol Bolas, Arcades Sabboth, Chromium, Palladia-Mors, Vaevictis Asmadi) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.

At least one of the Invasion dragons (Crosis, Darigaaz, Dromar, Rith, Treva) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.

The US debt ceiling will be increased by October 17, 2013 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by foo on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-17; judged right by schimmy on 2013-10-17.

Government shutdown to extend past November 1 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-11-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.

Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.

I got a score in the range 65-71/90 (inclusive) on the prelim that I will receive back tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

Created by azax1 on 2013-10-17; known on 2013-10-18; judged right by azax1 on 2013-10-17.

America Movil will succeed in its hostile takeover of KPN ( 30% confidence )

Created by dhoe on 2013-08-09; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-10-17.

Government shutdown will continue past Oct 15, 2013 (ie more than 2 weeks since its beginning) ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-16.

Nintendo officially offers bluetooth controllers with game-pack slot attachment devices for cell phones ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-10-16.

Tomorrow I will deploy a fix for the biography textbox issue. ( 95% confidence )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-10-16.

The Turning will have a Rotten Tomatoes rating >= 75% ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by atroche on 2013-10-16.

I will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of October (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 80% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by tylercurtis on 2013-10-15.

The Hawaiian punch will be gone from the fridge. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15.

I will fail to follow through on my dinner plans tonight. ( 40% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-12; known on 2013-10-12; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-10-14.

The Department of Labor will not make the September 2013 Employment Situation news release by October 12, 2013. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-12; judged right by foo on 2013-10-14.

The Department of Labor will not make the September 2013 Employment Situation news release by October 12, 2013. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-12; judged right by foo on 2013-10-14.

In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Chained to the Rocks ( 65% confidence )

Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.

In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Deceit ( 50% confidence )