Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
Apple won't buy TiVo before end of 2013 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
> 500m will use Windows 8 by end of 2013 — Steve Ballmer ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
Amazon won't launch it's own smart phone by end of 2013 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
Facebook will buy Evernote before end of 2013 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.
-
HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
Spam comments will routinely outnumber real comments/votes on Predictionbook.com by 2014 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $20/BTC at the end of 2013. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
My LessWrong karma will be over 1000 at the end of 2013 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2013 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
US government will indicts MtGox or its officers on criminal charges. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kiba on 2013-05-15; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
The Euro won't be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2013. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
There'll be another big trader loss incident (involving over $1b in losses) reported before end of 2013 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Graduates to ISP in 2013 ( 35% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
My blog (http://tuxedage.wordpress.com/) will exceed 100k words in length by the end of 2013. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
Eric Schmidt will get nominated for a position in the Obama administration in the year 2013 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
“Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow other ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
“The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon” —dfranke ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
Bashar al-Assad will still be holding power in Syria on December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
I will achieve all 7 of my New Year's resolutions before 2014. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
I will complete every single exercise in Harry Gensler's Introduction to Logic: Second Edition with an error rate of 20% or less before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
I will take the Spanish Language CLEP exam and will achieve a score of 55 or higher before 2014. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
I will perform 1 set of 25 standard pull-ups and 1 set of 250 bodyweight squats on the same day before 2014. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
My company will double its number of clients before 2014. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
The US will default on its debt in 2013 — Matthew Yglesias ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
New federal gun control laws will be passed in 2013 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
The next german ruling coalition will be a grand coalition between CDU and SPD ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by phreeza on 2013-09-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by phreeza on 2013-12-31.
-
Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by phreeza on 2013-09-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by phreeza on 2013-12-31.
-
Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
-
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
-
“Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI.” ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
-
“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-31.
-
“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
-
Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
-
Cyprus will leave the EU before 2014 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
-
“Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon” -dfranke ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
The BGI Cognitive Genomics study of general intelligence will find at least one hit at genome-wide significance in 2013. ( 67% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by CarlShulman on 2013-04-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2013-12-31.