Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The Wife of Bath's stories will be of the general category “The adultress's tale”. ( 60% confidence )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-10.
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Each person who brings a dish to the Effective Altruism Salon will be able to feed an average of between 2 and 4 people. ( 40% confidence )
Created by dusk on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-09-10; judged wrong by dusk on 2013-09-10.
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An NFL player will come out as gay before start of the NFL 2013 regular season ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-02; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-09.
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Microsoft will buy Nokia. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bknakker on 2012-09-10; known on 2014-09-01; judged right by bknakker on 2013-09-09.
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We will have hired a Magento dev by 6 September ( 40% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2013-08-28; known on 2013-09-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2013-09-09.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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Two weeks after opening, 'Dark Tourist' (by Suri Krishnamma) will hold a score of <45% on RottenTomatoes.com. ( 75% confidence )
Created by lukeprog on 2013-08-17; known on 2013-09-05; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-09-05.
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An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-30; known on 2013-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-05.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.
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LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 1 year ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-02.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Nov 1, 2013. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01.
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At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Sept 1, 2013. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01.
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I will have my driver's license by 1 September, 2013. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-09-01.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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“Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years” —Roger Ver ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2013-08-04; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-08-31.
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CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
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The Open Thread post at Less Wrong will be posted four times a month rather than its current twice a month within a year. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 37 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-09-08; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-30.
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MTG: Conditional on Thoughtseize being reprinted in Theros block, it will not be printed at mythic rare. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-29; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-30.
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Obama's not going to officially approve of the legalization of pot in Colorado and Washington ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-08-29.
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Vitor will crawl at least 6 feet in less than 30 seconds before he is 7 months old. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-19; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-29.
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August 2013 hard drive prices: 37-43 GB/$ ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-28.
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One of the three things will lead to Udyr being Flavor of the Month: Ghost usage in the jungle, AS item buffs such as Wit's End and the gold efficiency of tank items. (Sytha) Conditioning on these things all still holding true before the deadline is up ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2013-05-20; known on 2013-08-20; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2013-08-24.
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Ubuntu Edge will raise 32 million dollar on IndieGoGo ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-08-22.
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I will get a fix for the collection purchase bug deployed today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-21; known on 2013-08-22; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-22.
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I'll meet my goal of making at least one prediction per day for every day this week. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-13; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-21.
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At least 5 other people will make predictions on this prediction before I'm told to judge it August 21. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-13; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by procran on 2013-08-20.
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My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 15,000 cards before 2014. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-19.
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I will have used up 3 hours worth of pomodoros today ( 60% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-08-17; known on 2013-08-18; judged right by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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I will get a A or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-17.
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I will get a B or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-17.
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I will get a C or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-17.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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When this prediction comes due in 24 hours, I will have over 5,000 unread emails in my inbox. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-16; known on 2013-08-17; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-17.
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Ecuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-17.
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I'll have fixes for all the bugs assigned to me merged in to master by the end of the day. ( 35% confidence )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-15; known on 2013-08-16; judged wrong by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-16.
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I'll start working on Adrian's recommender today. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-14; known on 2013-08-15; judged wrong by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: ch90 will involve a use of a Time-Turner by any party. ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-08-30; judged right by nigr on 2013-08-15.
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I will finish my books within the week ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by thostian on 2013-08-15.
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HPMoR will update with chapter 97 on Wednesday the 14th of August. ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-11; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Quirrell. ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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I will get an A or better on my CSE 110 final tomorrow. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-12; known on 2013-08-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-14.
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Our total roommate expenses for July will be between $1000 and $2000. ( 50% confidence )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-14; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-14.
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On August 12, “Chandra, Pyromaster” will be sold at 19.95$ or more on starcitygames.com ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-08-12.
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On August 12, “Chandra, Pyromaster” will be sold at 9.95$ or more on starcitygames.com ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged right by Roxolan on 2013-08-12.