PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

NFL: Tebow will be gone from the NY Jets before 2013 NFL season ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03.
Silk Road will directly support LiteCoin and at least one seller will accept them, within 2 years. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-10-02.
Someone I was just sitting with who left will be in another room I'm about to go visit. ( 5% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-02; known on 2013-10-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-02.
At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-10-02.
no new chapters of hpmor will be finished by October 1st ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-13; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by apeterson on 2013-10-01.
DE: Philipp Roesler will step down as chairman of the FDP before the federal election ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-17; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-10-01.
US government shutdown will occur. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-29; known on 2013-10-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01.
The US will have a government shutdown sometime before June 2014. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-09-20; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01.
Accountability metrics will become a significant topic ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-09-28; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-30.
Mobile app suites will emerge as a paid for layer on top of vanilla OS ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-09-28; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-30.
The New England Patriots will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Atlanta Falcons. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-30; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-30.
The Buffalo Bills will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Baltimore Ravens. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-29; known on 2013-09-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-29.
Patrick prefers mild curries to hot ones. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2013-09-26; known on 2013-09-26; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-09-26.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #12 is written by an atheist. ( 90% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test Christian Entry 1 is written by an atheist. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #10 is written by an atheist. ( 51% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #2 is written by an atheist. ( 35% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #5 is written by an atheist. ( 65% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #4 is written by an atheist. ( 55% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #9 is written by an atheist. ( 15% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #8 is written by an atheist. ( 30% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #7 is written by an atheist. ( 35% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #6 is written by an atheist. ( 20% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #3 is written by an atheist. ( 45% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #11 is written by an atheist. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #6 is written by an atheist. ( 20% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
My current programming project will be at least 10,000 lines of code (including comments and whitespace) by the end of summer. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2013-09-24; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-24.
DE: The FDP will get more than 5% of the vote at the Bundestag elections '13 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-09; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-09-24.
Half-Life 3 will be announced this summer ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-06-29; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-09-23.
Dexter Season 8: Batista dies ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
Dexter Season 8: Dexter goes to jail ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
Dexter Season 8: Harrison shows development of a “dark passenger”; Debra takes the role of his guide, as Harry was for Dexter. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
Dexter Season 8: Harrison draws pictures involving murder or dead people. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
Dexter dies in the final episode. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
Dexter: There will be wincest. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
Le BOSS Talk Pomodoro va nous aider à nous concentrer ( 30% confidence )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-10; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2013-09-23.
La suppression du binôme de maintenance et gestion + challenging au stand-up par l'équipe ne causera pas de problème ( 70% confidence )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-10; known on 2013-09-23; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-09-23.
La Story Robustesse des tests nous a permis de rendre les tests de plateforme et de contrat vraiment plus stables. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-08-26; known on 2013-09-23; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-09-23.
AfD will stay under 5% at the German federal elections ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-04-16; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
German Minister of Defence will resign before the election ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-05-22; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-09-22.
US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
Patrick likes cheddar. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2013-09-21; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-09-21.
Southern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2013-09-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-20.
Conditioned on the Summoner not having a tale of this form, The Pardoner will have a tale of the form “The things that I've seen” ( 60% confidence )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-19.
The Pardoner will have a tale of the form “How a good-ish man was never shrived and (probably) went to hell.” ( 60% confidence )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-19.
In the AFL, the Hawks will defeat Geelong in round 15. ( 55% confidence )

Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by atroche on 2013-09-17.
The Magic set “Theros” will have a legend subtheme, hereby defined as: at least 20 legends and at least 5 cards that explicitly interact with legends. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2013-09-27; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-09-14.
Larry's talk will have more than 15 attendees ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by benkuhn on 2013-09-03; known on 2013-09-13; judged right by benkuhn on 2013-09-13.
The Wife of Bath will have a tale of the form “How I wooed/lost my nth husband” ( 60% confidence )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-10.