PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Snowden to be named official TIME Person of the Year. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-11.

Snowden to be named official TIME Person of the Year. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-11.

Snowden to be named official TIME Person of the Year. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-11.

Pope Francis to be named official TIME Person of Year. ( 30% confidence )

Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-12; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-11.

I will be satisfied with project demo ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-12-11.

Miley Cyrus beats Edward Snowden in the TIME 2013 Person of the Year Internet poll. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-11-27; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by tedks on 2013-12-09.

I will find a suitable Hobbit costume at the op-shop on Sunday ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-05; known on 2013-12-08; judged right by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-09.

Fed: Unemployment won't reach 7% until 2014 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07.

I will need new glasses at my appointment ( 60% confidence )

Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-05; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-06.

I will get all A-range (A-, A or A+) grades this semester ( 75% confidence )

Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-04; known on 2013-12-06; judged right by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-06.

I will get a 100 on algorithms homework 8. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05.

I will get at least a 90 on algorithms homework 8. ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05.

Sheep will shut down within a month. ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-04.

I think it will snow a little bit in Glenwood over thanksgiving break ( 80% confidence )

Created by nicot on 2013-11-20; known on 2013-12-04; judged right by nicot on 2013-12-04.

The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least December 1, 2013 ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03.

Michael Jordan will sell or become passive owner of the Bobcats by start of 2013-14 NBA season ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-12-03.

Apple will announce MacBook Pros with Retina Screens before December 2013 (these can either be updates to existing ones, or non-Retina models getting Retina screens, or brand new ones) Edit ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-11; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-12-02.

Labour to win next Australian federal election ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by procran on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by procran on 2013-12-02.

Tony Abbott will be the Prime Minister following the 2013 Australian Federal Election ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by atroche on 2013-12-01.

Ender's Game will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 122.6m) ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-12-01.

Bitcoin <$230 on Bitstamp at the start of 1 December 2013 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-01.

I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30.

I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30.

My guess was correct. ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2013-11-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28.

BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.

BTC hits $1000 in the next 10 years ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-19; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.

BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.

mortgage rates in Canada won't rise above 5% for a 1 year term within the next year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques on 2012-11-27; known on 2013-11-27; judged right by kjaques on 2013-11-27.

I will finish Judea Pearl's Causality (2nd edition) by the time it is due back to the library (8/28/13) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.

I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of August. ( 10% confidence )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.

I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of September. ( 25% confidence )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.

I will finish Judea Pearl's Causality (2nd edition) by the time it is due back to the library (8/28/13) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.

I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of August. ( 10% confidence )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.

3 times the square root of 2 exceeds 4. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-26; known on 2013-11-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-26.

Test will show I have very low cortisol | I get a salivary cortisol test ( 80% confidence )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-11-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-26.

Miami will beat Carolina (NFL) today. ( 55% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-24; known on 2013-11-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-24.

Amazon will dominate Android appstores —Marco Arment ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by kpreid on 2013-11-23.

“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.

Our professor will reveal the homework answer before it is due. ( 0% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22.

LW Survey calibration answer. ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22.

“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.

“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.

“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.

Worm final chapters and epilogues will reveal that 'Khepri' is alive. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by nohat on 2013-10-29; known on 2013-11-20; judged right by nohat on 2013-11-19.

I will get more than 85 points on algorithms HW7. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-19.

I will get exactly 85 points on HW7 for algorithms. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-19.

“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.

The price of 1BTC on MtGox is greater than or equal to $600 at some point before the end of this prediction. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by tedks on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-11-18.

Sheep Marketplace will cease operating within a month. ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-17; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-18.

I will try either Acme, Emacs, or both over the coming year. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2013-11-09; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18.

Statistics

Judged Predictions