PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

The Obamacare “exchanges will be working at the end of November”. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-30; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by najdorf on 2013-12-30.
Liberal/National Coalition to win Australian Federal Election 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-11-30; judged right by najdorf on 2013-12-30.
SR: the Maryland employee plea-bargained & cooperated with the government ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-30.
I will go to jail ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2013-09-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2013-12-30.
Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
Google will buy RIMM before the end of 2013 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.
Chicago-area will not have a white (1 inch of snow or greater) Christmas. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by adbge on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-26.
DE: Steinbrueck will be the next Chancellor of Germany ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-14; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-25.
NL: Housing price will have fallen > 8% year on year in Dec '13 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dhoe on 2012-11-18; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-25.
First-year sales of Rowling's new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20; judged right by Grognor on 2013-12-24.
Buffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins yesterday. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-23; known on 2013-12-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-23.
I will write a working basic CLJS todo application before this Sunday 6am Pacific ( 98% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-21; known on 2013-12-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-22.
The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20.
Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Glass Delayed in 2013 After Developers Puzzle Over Its Reason For Being ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2013-12-19.
Bitcoin goes below $600 in the next 30 days. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-12-19.
Family Guy will resurrect Brian ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Omid on 2013-11-26; known on 2023-03-01; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-17.
On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval [0,2.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 13% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 14% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 7% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 13% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 10% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
On the How Bad Was It? scale, which goes from 0 to 10, 0 being absolutely horrible, and 10 being absolutely awesome, an event I will soon engage in will score in the interval [0,2.5], and I will not reach Threshold 1, a certain level of progress within th ( 3% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
I will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2013-12-17.
My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 20,000 cards before 2014. ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-17.
gwern.net total traffic will average >2000 daily visits in the week a year from now ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-17.
gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-17.
I will get an A- in algorithms. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-20; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
I will get at least 89% on the algorithms final. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
[mredactedw] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
I will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
I will get exactly 86 points on the algorithms final. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-14; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
The Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs during the 2013-2014 NFL season. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
Angela Merkel will be reelected chancellor in 2013 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2012-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-12-16.
The Hobbit 2 (Desolation of Smaug) will score at least an 8 on imdb on December 15th. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-05; known on 2013-12-15; judged right by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-15.
If it sees play, widespread over 3+ decks as a star card, I'll eat my own fucking cum and post pictures. Note: Star card would mean it's something you play 4 off. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by thatonedude on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-12-15.
Opportunity Rover to function until December 15 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-01; known on 2013-12-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-15.
FF: we will use multiple logos. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by timesuptim on 2013-10-11; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by zzkt on 2013-12-15.
BMR will shut down within a month. ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-13.
BMR will shut down within a month. ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-13.
I will get a homework average of at least 92.5% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 73% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-13.
I will get a homework average of at least 95% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 69% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-13.
“Story of My Life” by One Direction will be in the top 3 tracks for the United States on Spotify on or before January 17, 2014. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2014-01-18; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-12.
SpaceX will launch more than 2 rockets this year. ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kiba on 2013-05-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by kiba on 2013-12-11.
Pope Francis to be named official TIME Person of Year. ( 30% confidence )

Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-12; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-11.
Pope Francis to be named official TIME Person of Year. ( 30% confidence )

Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-12; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-11.