PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Elon Musk's hyperloop method of transportation will not be an underground solution. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by zpinter on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by zpinter on 2013-08-12.

Elon Musk's Hyperloop will consist of vehicles travelling in a tunnel or enclosed tube ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged right by phreeza on 2013-08-12.

Elon Musk's Hyperloop will be some variation of a Lofstrom loop ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-08-12.

I will go on a time-wasting site in the next 8 hours ( 40% confidence )

Created by Carnegie on 2013-08-09; known on 2013-08-10; judged right by Carnegie on 2013-08-10.

I will receive my first choice of dorming at Washington University in St Louis ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-08-09; judged wrong by Isaac on 2013-08-09.

I will finish another noms memo next week ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Carnegie on 2013-08-02; known on 2013-08-09; judged wrong by Carnegie on 2013-08-09.

JA Bayes will spend more than 6 hours using FL Studio over the next 30 days. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Lemmih on 2013-08-05; known on 2013-09-04; judged right by Lemmih on 2013-08-07.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 79% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.

Robert Mugabe of ZANU-PFwill lose to Morgan Tsvangirai of MDC-T in the next election(2012) in Zimbabwe ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-05.

My blood test will show nothing of great import ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-02; judged right by thostian on 2013-08-05.

No toilet jump ( 83% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-08-05; known on 2013-08-06; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-08-05.

I will finish the Donato memo by COB Friday ( 80% confidence )

Created by Carnegie on 2013-08-01; known on 2013-08-02; judged wrong by Carnegie on 2013-08-02.

Max will be non-vegan for at least two of the following six days, starting today. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-08-02; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-08-02.

SMBC Comics: A comic involving penis size as the cross product of legs will appear before September 2013 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-28; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-08-02.

Clean chip trial will show statistically significant decrease in alkali use per ton pulp (or per ton debarked chip if this metric is unavailable) for debarked chips vs regular chips. ( 80% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2013-06-24; known on 2013-08-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-02.

NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoE ( 26% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-01.

Fabrice Tourre will lose his insider trading trial ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-08-01.

I will write programs between January 2013 and July 2013 (inclusive) and do a majority of this programming on a monitor in portrait orientation ( 57% confidence; 45 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-08-01.

Superman 2 will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 227.53) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.

feds take down silk road within a year ,from a undercover agent selling ids and monitoring emails ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.

I will gain 2 lbs (weight >= 120 lbs) in one month. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-06-27; known on 2013-07-27; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-07-30.

xkcd “Time” will show its last unique frame before 2014 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by itaibn on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by itaibn on 2013-07-29.

The Magic: the Gathering block code named “Friends”, “Romans” and “Countrymen” will be a Large-Small-Small block. ( 75% confidence )

Created by ygert on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-12-16; judged right by ygert on 2013-07-29.

I will read every entry in the Summer 2012 Edition of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy within 1 year from now. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-11; known on 2013-07-11; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-27.

Max will be non-vegan for at least two of the following seven days, starting today. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-26.

HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. ( 71% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-25.

Colorado Springs city council will vote against the opt-out of Amendment 64. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PrinceMachiavelli on 2013-07-23; known on 2013-07-24; judged wrong by PrinceMachiavelli on 2013-07-23.

Powershame will release an alpha for Linux by July 22, 2013 ( 80% confidence )

Created by jaibot on 2013-07-03; known on 2013-07-22; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-23.

Within one week (through either my action or inaction) my phone will function normally (i.e., be used to send texts and calls at a rate less than $0.50 per text and $2.50 per minute) in the United Kingdom. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-23; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-23.

Within one week, I will have one month membership to a local gym in the UK. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-23; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-23.

In one week, I will own or borrow a bike. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-23; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-23.

I will make my fifth prediction within a week ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-07-29; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22.

OoTS: It will take the Order of the Stick 1-3 strips to escape from Team Evil. (In other words, they will escape in #903 or before.)(From http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showpost.php?p=15617403&postcount=15) ( 70% confidence )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-22.

Nick will come over for Fun Time at least once within the next seven days. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-07-27; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-21.

Within the next week there will be one or more riots attributed to the Zimmerman verdict by a mainstream news outlet. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-21; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-21.

MX will accept my friend request within a week ( 70% confidence )

Created by PineapplesBlue on 2013-07-19; known on 2013-07-26; judged right by PineapplesBlue on 2013-07-21.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto’s Evangelion manga: After stage (chapter) 87, there will be 3 more stages, for a final manga volume consisting of 6 stages ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-20.

Microsoft's stock will go down between July 18, 2012 and the first of a) when Mark Penn leaves the company or Microsoft announces he's leaving and b) one year later. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by aaronsw on 2012-07-19; known on 2013-07-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-20.

By the end of the year, NASA will announce that spherical objects discovered by its Opportunity rover on 9/14 are geological rather than biological in origin. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-19.

Within three months they will admit to using drones to keep an eye on the suspect who is causing the ruckus in Boston. The suspect that is apparently being hunted for the shooting at MIT I mean. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2013-04-19; known on 2013-07-19; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2013-07-19.

HPMOR updates this Wednesday. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by tedks on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-18; judged right by tedks on 2013-07-18.

Nick will actually move out today (defined as not sleeping for any amount of time greater than twenty minutes at this house within the next ten hours) ( 95% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-17; known on 2013-07-18; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-18.

GSoC 2012: “Enable GHC to use multiple instances of a package for compilation” ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-17.

'Abigail Boyd' will respond with a link or other form of an auction website instead of a real offer. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-07-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-17.

I will be finished with this transcription task by 5pm ( 75% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-07-16; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-16.

Apple will lose in its e-book antitrust trial. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ygert on 2013-07-16.

Conditional upon the website existing and the NFL season occuring (and of course, the world not ending), Stephen Hill (NYJ) will be rated in the top 50 WR's at http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/wr.php next year on July 15. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Porejide on 2012-09-14; known on 2013-07-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-07-15.

At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor animal welfare. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.

At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor existential risk. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.

Statistics

Judged Predictions