PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

I wont see her any more ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-01; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2012-04-09.
I will complete my Anki review for the day. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09; known on 2012-04-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09.
Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 3 & 4: placebo then vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2012-04-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-07.
friday will be 'Sunny' as the weather report has suggested ( 40% confidence )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-04-07; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-07.
i won't get present for easter at all ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-04-09; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-07.
I will complete chapter 23 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06.
We will go to the royal easter show on friday this week, and see the cat and dog show as i wished. ( 90% confidence )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-06.
I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
I will gain at least one Pinterest follower who is a “real person” (has pinned things, pins don't contain spam links) by this time tomorrow ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-05.
It will rain in Cambridge, UK tomorrow between 1pm and 5pm. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-05.
It will rain in Cambridge, UK tomorrow between 1pm and 5pm. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-05.
Evangelion manga: Shinji and/or Asuka will defeat the MP Evas ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-02; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-05.
I will complete and merge all of my incomplete Anki decks into a single master deck within the next 12 hours. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.
I will complete all my physics practice problems correctly. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.
I will complete every exercise in the first 10 chapters of Introduction to Java Programming by Y. Daniel Liang before the end of March, 30th, 2012. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.
we will going away (gold coast, carins)during easter holiday ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-03-30; known on 2012-04-20; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-05.
Trike IT will have migrated to being a python shop ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Adam on 2009-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-04-05.
HP MoR: <4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
GJP: #1062 Will the daily Europe Brent Crude FOB spot price per barrel be greater than or equal to $150 before 3 April 2012? ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
GJP: #1097 Will Tunisia officially announce an extension of its current state of emergency before 1 April 2012? ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-04.
3-D is just a fad: “It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
HP MoR : ch 83 (or sooner): Instead of showing any gratidude to Harry, Hermione would have to rely on her outrage (at him) to fight her developing Harryphobia. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-04-17; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-04.
I will gain at least one more Pinterest follower by this time tomorrow ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04.
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 35 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 30 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 25 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 20 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 15 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 10 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1045 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1024 Will Abdoulaye Wade win re-election as President of Senegal? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1071 Will Iran and the U.S. commence official nuclear program talks* before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1072 Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy before 1 April 2012? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1073 Will the IMF officially announce before 1 April 2012 that an agreement has been reached to lend Hungary an additional 15+ Billion Euros? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1076 Will the Iraqi government officially announce before 1 April 2012 that it has dropped all criminal charges against its VP Tareq al-Hashemi? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1058 By 1 April 2012, will Egypt officially announce its withdrawal from its 1979 peace treaty with Israel? ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1063 Will the Taliban begin official* in-person negotiations with either the US or Afghan government by 1 April 2012? ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1064 Will Yousaf Raza Gillani resign, lose confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 April 2012? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1067 Will Traian Basescu resign, lose referendum vote, or vacate the office of President of Romania before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1068 Will the UN Security Council pass a new measure/resolution directly concerning Syria between 23 January 2012 and 31 March 2012? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1035 Will the United Nations Security Council pass a new resolution concerning Iran by 1 April 2012? ( 20% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1069 Before 1 April 2012, will South Korea officially* announce a policy of reducing Iranian oil imports in 2012? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1096 Will a civil war break out in Syria between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1092 Will Myanmar release at least 100 more political prisoners between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1091 Will Standard and Poor's downgrade Japan's Foreign Long Term credit rating at any point between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1085 Between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012, will the UN Security Council announce any reduction of its peacekeeping force in Haiti? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1088 Will Japan commence parliamentary elections before 1 April 2012? ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1103 Before 1 April 2012, will the Sudan and South Sudan governments officially announce an agreement on oil transit fees? ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1104 Will Yemeni government forces regain control of the towns of Jaar and Zinjibar from Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.