PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

Kosovo has <116 recognitions by sovereign states (excludes Niue and Cook Islands, includes “withdrawn” recognitions because withdrawing isn't valid) ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Nicolás Maduro holds on to the presidency of Venezuela ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500 ( 40% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

[The Economist predicts:] Britain gets a new monarch ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-08-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

“the Milo shtick by 2020 will be to come out as straight, healed by the soothing words of Mike Pence, or something” ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.

U.S. Federal Reserve lowers interest rate below 100bps before end of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

[Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

[Personal] My favorite album, movie, and TV show will all be the same at the end of 2020 as they are now. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

[Personal] I'll work out at least twice on every day from now on till the end of 2020. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

S&P 500 index ends 2020 above 3500 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

U.S. 10-year bond yield dips below 0.25 in 2020 ( 65% confidence )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

Fed cuts Fed Fund rate to negative before end of 2020 ( 40% confidence )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

LBMA gold price reaches $1800/oz in 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

Hong Kong Dollar will not break peg in 2019 or 2020 ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2019-08-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

SoftBank stock suffers 50% correction from its all-time-high by end of 2020 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

US Treasury 10Y yield >= 3% in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

Federal Reserve does not reduce target Fed Fund rate in 2020 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

Dollar index (DXY) 2020 performance is negative ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by sortega on 2020-12-31.

Hungary will go into lockdown ( 20% confidence )

Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by MartaK on 2020-12-31.

Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-31.

Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.

I contribute a major feature to PredictionBook ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.

Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.

[The Economist predicts:] United States falls into recession during the next 12 months ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.

Brexit fails ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.

[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are only the current 16 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.

[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are fewer than 16 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )