Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Facebook has <=50M active users in 2021 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020 ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Portugal – countrywide COVID-19 vaccination campaign has started by the end of 2020 ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LouisLC on 2020-06-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The Australian government releases a version of the COVIDSafe app which supports Apple’s iOS contact tracing API in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2020-05-21; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-01-01.
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There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Gary Johnson wins 2020 presidential election. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020” – Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-29; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Ray Kurzweil: We can “switch off our fat cells” by 2020 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qap on 2014-01-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year” —Robert Prechter ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year” —Robert Prechter ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year” —Robert Prechter ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021 ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Texting by thinking' in 2020 ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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MDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Syriza will remain in power through 2020 ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Politics, Thailand – Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha resigns before the end of 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Politics, Thailand – Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha resigns before the end of 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] …narrowly by Joe Biden. His popular vote win will be massive but due to voter suppression and structural advantages his electoral college margin will be small. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by evan.f.young@gmail.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] …in a landslide by Joe Biden. The voter suppression strategy didn't work. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by evan.f.young@gmail.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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It'll all be over by Christmas (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 30% confidence )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-27; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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US puts another human footprint on the moon ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Morocco withdraws from Western Sahara by 2020 ( 10% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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United States will invade Australia and take over ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Steve Bannon one of 5 remaining candidates in republican primaries, 2020 ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump is still president ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020 ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sashoir on 2020-03-31; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Blind Guardian comes out with an album in 2019 and another in 2020 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-02-19; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.