Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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President Trump will stand down from the presidential office ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by BillEBrogan on 2020-11-12; known on 2020-11-13; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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The Pfizer covid vaccine will have received emergency use authorization. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-24.
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Trump will win the Presidency in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Joe Biden will win the election in 2020 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shutterspeed on 2020-07-26; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Libertarian Party candidate gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Trump will win the election ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by 4dahalibut on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Trump will have conceded defeat in the presidential election. ( 1% confidence )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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The tipping point state will be Michigan ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Russia's virus vaccine will be successful ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peterk13 on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-09-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Bitcoin finishes year < $10k USD ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Zuckerberg runs for POTUS, takes part in primaries for one of {Republican, Democrat} party and lasts to be at least in top 5 candidates ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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The first randomized clinical trials of Vitamin D supplementation for COVID-19 will show a significant effect on the primary endpoint. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.
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When I check, there will turn out to have been historical examples of hacks/attacks on pharmaceutical companies ( 55% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-18; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.
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I find that pumpkin seeds do actually make a difference to my sleep quality, that the initial experience wasn't just placebo ( 60% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-10-15; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-11-17.
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There will be riots and/or civil unrest, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots, in conjunction with the 2020 presidential election. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-11-16.
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Apple made <25% profits in 2019 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-16.
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A new US Political party will come to power by 2020 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-16.
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A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
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Amash gets the R nomination in 2020, conditional on Trump not getting it. ( 2% confidence )
Created by evand on 2020-05-09; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by evand on 2020-11-16.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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Donald Trump will win the electoral college votes ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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Donald Trump will win the electoral college votes ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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Donald Trump will win the electoral college votes ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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Biden wins in 2020 US elections (just ticking off boring politics things) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2020-11-15; judged right by akarlin on 2020-11-15.
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@iabvek's presential and senate forecasts (see https://twitter.com/iabvek/status/1323522647678873600) will jointly hve a higher (i.e., worse/less accurate) Brier score than 538's forecast ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-11-14.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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Trying cyclical focustime will increase rescuetime score above 75 for week ending November 8th ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dstephens99 on 2020-10-29; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by dstephens99 on 2020-11-11.
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Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election. ( 32% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CoreyS on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by galaga on 2020-11-11.
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RCB wins IPL 2020. ( 8% confidence )
Created by galaga on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-11; judged wrong by galaga on 2020-11-11.
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P posts his podcast to lbry ( 65% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by grin on 2020-11-10.
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Apple will release a Macbook or Macbook Pro that uses a CPU designed by someone other than Intel or AMD. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-10.
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European pharma companies do not have significantly lower profits than American pharma companies. (In 2019 or earlier) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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COVID, Germany – COVID death counts will go up whithin 8 weeks (Karl Lauterbach on Twitter) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-20; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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MLB season is shut down or significantly altered (eg. introduce a bubble) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-10-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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Donald Trump would contest in the 2020 elections. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[Trump ] recovers and wins ( 31% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[Trump ] recovers and looses ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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EIther Trump or Sanders will be president, and it won't change my life at all. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ntrueman on 2020-02-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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By election day 2020, Donald Trump's tax returns are published ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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At least one year of Trump's tax documents are published by the New York Times between now and the 2020 election ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.