At least 10% of packages in any major country delivered autonomously (last kilometer) in 2019. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.

S&P 500 P/E below 9 any time before 2020 Jan 1. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.

Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.

90% of web traffic will be images ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.

I think the Arab Spring will end with most of the arab countries having structured democracies ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by mxh5251 on 2013-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Ted Cruz will not win a term as US Senator contiguous with his current term. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

“The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on” in 2019 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

The Stig is Sabine Schmitz and this will be reported by a mainstream newspaper before 2020. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-05-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

IRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Amazon will acquire Boston Dynamics, and this will be publicly announced before the end of 2019 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

“The United Kingdom will leave the European Union” ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

“No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019” ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.

“Bionic eyes are commercially available” in 2019 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.

I will have filed at least 1 application for a patent by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.

The Taliban control most of Afghanistan including Kabul ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

The Navier-Stokes Millennium prize will be awarded before 2020-01-01 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.

Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

“Britain holds second Brexit referendum” ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.

“Trump’s approval rating below 40” ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.

“By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)” —Jack ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

The RTX 2080 Ti will see an official price reduction (MSRP) of at least 300$ before the end of 2019. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2020-01-01.

Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2020. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.