PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 6 weeks. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-16.

I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 5 weeks. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

The picture of an Intel processor on http://www.appliedrationality.org/rationality/ is under copyright and was used without permission. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by papermachine on 2012-07-03; known on 2013-01-03; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-07-11.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

1 million page-views on `http://www.gwern.net` within 4 months. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-17.

My “shaming” comment will have negative karma at the end of 1 week from now. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-10.

Djokovic will win wimbledon 2012 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-09.

Facebook ($FB) will buy RIM ($RIMM) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

AAPL share prices will reach $700 before December 2013 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.

My plane to Shanghai will crash tomorrow ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Christopher on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-07-03.

I will be hired as a 'crime analyst' before 2013. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.

I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.

I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.

World record high temperature will reach or exceed 140 °F in 2012. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Death Valley temperature will be recorded at or above 135 °F this year. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.

I will complete chapter 1 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.

I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.

There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2022-07-01.

The honorarium I’ll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be more than 126 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by papermachine on 2012-06-30.

The honorarium I'll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be between 75 and 125 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-06-30.

I will be using Linux in 20 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.

I will be using Linux in 10 years ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.

I will be using Emacs in 20 years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.

I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.

I will be using Firefox in 20 years ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.

I will be using Firefox in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.

I will be using Bash in 20 years ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.

I will be using Bash in 10 years ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-28.

I will read chapter V of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-28.

I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

I will complete chapter 15 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

I will complete chapter 14 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.

I will complete chapter 13 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.

I will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.

Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014 ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-16.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

I will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

I will read chapter 2 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

I will complete chapter 8 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

I will read chapter 1 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

Miami Heat will win game 4 of the NBA finals ( 65% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-20.

Sky City will take more than 90 days of construction time to build or will not be built at all in the next 2 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-19; known on 2014-06-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

For all x, if x is a comment in response to Luke's 'NEW GAME' comment and x contains at least 1 correct answer, then x will have positive karma at the prediction closing time. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

I will complete chapter 7 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

I will complete chapter 12 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

I will complete chapter 11 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 4 hours. ( 50% confidence )