HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter's name ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

HP MoR: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.

HP MoR: The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort's master or teacher ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

I will complete all my physics practice problems correctly. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.

HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

HP MoR: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.

HP MoR: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.

HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.

HP MoR: Sybil Trelawney will prophesy the unspoken ch63 prophecy when she comes within earshot of Harry ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-13.

HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2016-02-02.

HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.

HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Remus Lupin ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.

HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Sirius Black ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.

HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Voldemort ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.

HP MoR: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: story completed during Harry's third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

I will get an alpha for the CATAM project on continued fractions ( 60% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.

I will get no recall at all for Ruddigore ( 20% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.

I will get a principal recall for Ruddigore ( 20% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.

I will be get a first this year ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.

It will rain in Cambridge, UK tomorrow between 1pm and 5pm. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-05.

I will have my movie 99% of my movie completed by this weekend! ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-08; judged wrong by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10.

Santorum will win the Pennsylvania primary ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10.

My friend J.S. will consider Notch's game 0×10c to have been one of the best games of all time within two years. ( 85% confidence )

Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-04-04; known on 2014-04-03; judged wrong by quicklystarfish on 2014-03-19.

I'm going to book sky diving and attened it during the easter holiday. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-08; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.

During the easter holidays, we will drive to a random forest and listen to owl city's 'fire flies' with all the car lights off…… ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.

I will spend more than 24 hrs in total in the studios between now and assignment due date. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by williamycai on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-12-04; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-06.

HP MoR : ch 83 (or sooner): Instead of showing any gratidude to Harry, Hermione would have to rely on her outrage (at him) to fight her developing Harryphobia. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-04-17; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-04.

Diablo 3 will launch on consoles by end of 2012 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

I will finish The Complete Idiot's Guide to Learning Latin before the end of the year. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

I will win my Yahoo Fantasy Basketball round 7-2. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-02.

HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.

HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-07-04; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-02.

HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain's economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione's “purchase”). ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.

HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.

Not including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Starcraft 2 (measured by 1st month sales – Starcraft 2 sold 3 million units). ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.

Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. Currently I am at about 15% Body Fat. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-07-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-07-31.

I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.

I will have achieved intermediate level on all my one remaining weightlifting lift as defined in my spreadsheet. ie Bench press 20 reps at 38kg. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.

Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-05-01.

My cable technician will not have all the necessary equipment for installation. ( 35% confidence )

Created by spqr0a1 on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by spqr0a1 on 2012-04-01.

Murder rate has bottomed in the US (2013 murder rate > 2011 according to fbi stats http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr) ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-31; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

I will complete The Complete Idiot's Guide to Physics: Second Edition before 2013. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

we will going away (gold coast, carins)during easter holiday ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-03-30; known on 2012-04-20; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-05.

i will buy a lip stick during the weekend ( 60% confidence )

Created by happyday on 2012-03-30; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-02.