PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The Dictator (movie with Sasha Baren Cohen) will do better than expected (measured by 4 wk US gross > $68m now on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12.

I will finish my physics Anki deck within the next 5 hours. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-04-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14.

Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.

9 or more students will present in today's reviews (my studio) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13; known on 2012-04-13; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13.

My students will take me up on the offer of a case of beer for today's reviews. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13; known on 2012-04-13; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13.

HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is the appearance of a marked Riddle or Voldemort on the map in places without people ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Physics: Second Edition within the next 5 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.

I will attend at least 1 Less Wrong meetup between now and 2013. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.

I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.

I will complete chapter 1 of All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide: Fourth Edition within 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.

I will enjoy tonight's dinner with a bunch of unkonwn friends. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-13.

HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder's Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is the spirit of Voldemort or Riddle ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-08-17.

HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing under another name (eg. 'Tom Riddle') ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-27.

HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing as 'the Defense Professor' ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

Santorum won't be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.

One or more people from the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term ( 49% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-06-11.

One or more people from outside the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term. ( 51% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-06-11.

I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 10 hours. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11.

We'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k) ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-03-06.

I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-04-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will complete chapter 26 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10.

My husband won't sleep before 3am today because he can't finish his vedio clip for design. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-11.

More than 10 people will show up for Ben's tutorial today. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10.

HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be mentioned by name but not appear ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

Apple will begin to sell a third tablet-style device in addition to the iPad and iPod touch/iPhone lines. This device will not have the same screen resolution (excluding factors of 2) as one of the other devices. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 25 comments )

Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-04-09; known on 2013-04-09; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-09.

HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Sirius Black is in Hogwarts ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew ( 60% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Bellatrix Black is a Horcrux ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Peter Pettigrew is dead ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

I will complete my Anki review for the day. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09; known on 2012-04-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09.

By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.

HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy because she was a Horcrux ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy by accident ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Voldemort ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy is dead ( 72% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.

HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Helena Ravenclaw (the Grey Lady ghost) ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sybil Trelawney ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Leroy Lockhart ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Harry (future or present) ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Dumbledore ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Severus Snape ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Cloak & Hat has Obliviated Blaise Zabini's mother ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83 ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Voldemort is Quirrel's wand or is contained within it ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever, and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-09-14.

HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.

HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known in 7 days.

HP MoR: Quirrel plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Quirrel's zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2016-01-07.

HP MoR: Quirrel is Harry from the future ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher's Stone) ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

HP MoR: Quirrel is the fused personality of Voldemort + original Quirrel ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Quirrel is a younger version of Voldemort, a damaged backup from many years before (like the diary Riddle) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Quirrel believes that Harry's stone is the Resurrection Stone ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

HP MoR: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Quirrel will spend >=2 years as Defense professor ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a creature which doesn't age (eg. a basilisk) ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.

HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first and is Quirrel ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won't be Friendly, killing many/all ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry will invent some form of 'metamagic' (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry's disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse) ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-27.

HP MoR: Harry is a horcrux ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

HP MoR: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body and Bellatrix Black will be used in it ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Harry will stay at Hogwarts during Easter and his parents will visit him ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Muke Tever on 2013-07-11.

Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 5 & 6: placebo then vitamin D ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2012-04-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-09.

Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 3 & 4: placebo then vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2012-04-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-07.

George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Turtleread on 2012-04-07; known in 7 days.

A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-04-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-03.

Bobby Petrino will be the head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks at the start of the 2012 season. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2012-04-10.

I will complete chapter 23 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-20.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

Statistics

Recent Predictions