Death Note: Equestria: Spike is L ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-10.

I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before 2013. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

I will complete chapter 1 of Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-08; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-08.

I will complete chapter 10 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 8 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-07.

Facebook IPO price will “pop” above $45 on first day ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-05-18.

Facebook will buy Evernote before end of 2013 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

Knicks will be swept in the first round of NBA playoffs ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-05-06.

By the end of the summer, I will have memorized over 500 words in Italian. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.

By the end of the summer, I will have memorized 1000 words in Italian. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.

Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2014-05-03; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-05-04.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty within the next 120 days. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid within the next 90 days. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-02.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker within the next 60 days. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-07-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

I will attempt suicide this year ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Leo on 2012-05-02; known on 2013-05-03; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-05-03.

http://dkmvs.com/ will rank #1 on Google searches for “dick moves” in Australia ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-06-06.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02; known on 2012-05-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02.

Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft “got” social networking better than Google. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.

Google will buy RIMM before the end of 2013 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 7 hours. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01.

I predict that in the next two hours, I will finish 90% of the assignment I'm working on ( 90% confidence )

Created by Selector_3 on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by Selector_3 on 2012-04-30.

I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-30.

I will finish Learn Python the Hard way by the end of the School Year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-06-17; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-06-17.

3D technologies (like 3D TV channels) will become widespread by the year 2013. Football matches will be screened in 3D as well. ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Selector on 2012-04-26; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by alexyakushev on 2013-02-01.

US domestic movie box office for summer in 2012 will be higher than 2011 ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-03.

Apple will be a trillion dollar company before end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.

I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 4 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-04-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25.

I will listen to the entire lecture series Practicing Mindfulness: An Introduction to Meditation by Mark W. Muesse within the next 3 weeks. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-05-16; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-26.

GSoC 2012: “multiuser browser-based interactive ghci, hpaste.org meets tryhaskell.org, for improved teaching of those new to Haskell.” ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “Enable GHC to use multiple instances of a package for compilation” ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-17.

GSoC 2012: “Accelerating Haskell Application Development” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “Implement Concurrent Hash-table / Hash map” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “Scoutess – a build manager for cabal projects” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Jeb Bush will be Mitt Romney's VP pick ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-11.

Supreme Court will uphold individual mandate in “ObamaCare”. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by DetroitDan on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

The twenty under twenty program will accept more than twenty fellows this year. ( 10% confidence )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-05-02; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2012-05-05.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.

The Pittsburgh Penguins will defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in 7 games in the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs ( 13% confidence )

Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-04-25; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-05-30.

Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2016-11-09.

Homestuck: Sollux and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 10% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.

Homestuck: Feferi and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 20% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.

Homestuck: Sollux and Feferi are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 40% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.

Homestuck: Nepeta and Equius are prototyped together into Dirk's kernelsprite ( 70% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.

Homestuck: Eridan will be prototyped into a kernelsprite by himself. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.

Homestuck: Of the five remaining dead trolls, at least four of them will be prototyped into fused sprites. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.

I will be hospitalized or visit the emergency room within the year. ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2013-04-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-18.

papermachine will buy Grognor a monocle on or by December 7, 2012 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-04-18; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-12-09.

HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Voldemort is proper dead. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

HP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because people will be uncertain whether Harry's points ought go to Slytherin or Ravenclaw. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.

HP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because Hogwarts rules are unclear whether house points earned by students that have left Hogwarts should be counted. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.

Homestuck: Gamzee didn't go god-tier at all. He just made the outfit/acquired it from one of his alternate timeline selves. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by 1337_w0n on 2012-04-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.

I will sleep on the plane. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17.

In my Wikipedia experiment, >=50% of the links will be restored. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.

In my Wikipedia experiment, >=90% of the links will be restored. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.

I will come to respect those people who endeavor to know systems of thought, fail, and yet still pretend comprehension/mastery when presenting the topic to others. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

gwern will present his next public opinion in a way which people will see only one of three ways: educated lie, pompous and self important, lost on them due to his penchant for the thesaurus. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged wrong by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-28.