Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
-
Google maps app for iPhone 5 won't be launched by end of 2012 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13.
-
D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-01.
-
D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2016 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
-
D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
-
D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2015 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
-
D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2022-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-10-06.
-
D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2017-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-10-06.
-
In 2013, the ratio of anecdotes confirming Seth Roberts's various pet theories published in Roberts's blog, relative to those disconfirming them, will be at least 10 to one. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-06-16.
-
They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.
-
There will be superintelligence by 2033. — Nick Bostrom ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2034-01-01.
-
I will implement obstacles in my game today. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-05; known on 2012-10-05; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-05.
-
They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
-
There still will be queue management outside Topshop Sydney by Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-10-04; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-10-10.
-
They won't be able to upload a honey bee brain into a robot insectoid by end of 2015 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
-
Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.
-
DNB/nicotine day 23: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.
-
The user rating of Community on IMDB will be less than 8.5 by the end of Season 4. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-10-02; known on 2013-01-13; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-24.
-
By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
-
Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-02; known on 2100-01-01.
-
DNB/nicotine day 23: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-02; known on 2012-10-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-02.
-
The first episode of the third season of MLP:FIM will first be broadcast on November 20'th ( 55% confidence )
Created by _W_ on 2012-10-02; known on 2012-11-21; judged wrong by _W_ on 2012-11-21.
-
Luke Muehlhauser will not publish a book (by a mainstream publisher) in 2013. ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-11.
-
If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
-
If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. — Robin Hanson ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
-
Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
-
By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. — Robin Hanson ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
-
By 2100, the vast majority of “people” will be immortal computers running brain simulations. — Robin Hanson ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
-
Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. — David Pearce ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2100-01-01.
-
Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
A “theory of everything” combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-01; known on 2027-12-31.
-
Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
-
The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-01-01.
-
By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. — David Pearce ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.
-
The average healthy, non-smoking, physically active male reader of Reddit now in his early 30s will live long enough to experience a Singularity and in some manner escape the bonds of traditional mortality. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.
-
DNB/nicotine day 22: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-01; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-01.
-
I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Logic'. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13.
-
I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Learn to Program: The Fundamentals'. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-11-13; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13.
-
I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Mathematical Thinking'. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13.
-
I will beat Deus Ex: Human Revolution in Spanish before 2013. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
-
DNB/nicotine day 21: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-09-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-30.
-
Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
-
I will have completed all (367) exercises on Khan Academy by the end of 2012. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-12-31.
-
I will not publish an NYT bestseller in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.
-
I won't upgrade to iPhone 5 before February 2013. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-02-01.
-
I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
-
I'll lose 10 pounds before Summit 2012. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-10-15; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-15.
-
I won't try polyphasic sleep in 2012. ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
-
Wiki gun will be successfully complete in 2 years ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-28; known on 2014-09-23; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-26.
-
Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
-
Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing —MixedNuts ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2112-09-27.
-
No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known on 2017-09-27; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-27.
-
DNB/nicotine day 20: active? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2012-09-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-27.
-
I will add a glossary to my Less Wrong article within 24 hours. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-26; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-27.
-
DNB/nicotine day 19: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-26; known on 2012-09-26; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-26.
-
Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.
-
A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2017-09-26.
-
HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2015-09-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
-
A major tech startup (valuation > 10 million dollars) will be launched out of a country or by native citizens of a country ranked in the lowest 100 of GDP per capita according to the CIA factbook. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2032-09-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
-
It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.
-
Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
-
Gene Munster + Brian White: APPL price target of > $910 by May 2013 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
-
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: 49 million iPhone sales for December, 2012 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
-
DNB/nicotine day 18: active? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-09-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.
-
No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24; judged right by gwern on 2022-09-24.
-
No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2032-09-24.
-
I will take more than 40 grams of kratom until 31.12.2012. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-12-15.
-
I will play WoW for less than 5 hours this week ( 90% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-30.
-
I will play Guild Wars 2 for more than 10 hours in the next week ( 50% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-30.
-
DNB/nicotine day 17: active? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-09-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.
-
Paul Farrell, Marketwatch: Wall Street will lose 20% by 2016 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
-
I will see a visible color difference in my photographs of my eye before and after iodine supplementation. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-05.
-
Gwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by paulharris on 2012-09-22; known on 2014-09-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
-
Paul Allen will attempt to “download” or “store” his brain before he dies ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2062-01-01.
-
Beyond 2011 and 2010, Romney will eventually release more tax returns before the election. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2020. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2030. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2030-01-01.
-
“Butterfly Labs ASIC will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule” —Bets of Bitcoin ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
-
Democrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-12-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.
-
I will watch 90%+ of Love Exposure (2008) before 2013 ( 43% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
-
I will like Moonrise Kingdom (2012) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
-
Twitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018 ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-06.
-
The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Assuming Obama wins, Sheryl Sandberg will take a administration job ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-20; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03.
-
I will find Accel World interesting enough to watch the whole first season. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-09-20; known on 2013-01-20; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-20.
-
DNB/nicotine day 16: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-20; known on 2012-09-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-20.
-
Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
-
DNB/nicotine day 15: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-19.
-
The Ouya video game console will be shipped & delivered in March 2013, on schedule. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-18; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-30.
-
In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.