PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes: Apple to sell 45.21 million iPhones in the December quarter, up 22 percent from last year. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley: Apple to ship 9 million to 10 million iPhone 5s from Friday to September 29. ( 45% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26.

2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known in 7 days.

2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

2014: Malaria vaccine enters manufacturing. This vaccine is available in 2015. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

2019: HIV is able to be thrown into remission in HIV+ individuals carrying the HIV-1 strain, only. Further research is needed for HIV-2. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.

2016: Hepatitis C vaccine becomes headlines as its rolled out into manufacturing. The Hep C vaccine also throws those fighting the virus currently; into an automatic state of remission with help of cocktail enhancers. ( 99% confidence )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

2017: Numerous companies develop different vaccination techniques for HIV. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

I will be ranked Diamond League in Starcraft II 1v1 by the end of the school year. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2012-09-17; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2013-05-15.

DNB/nicotine day 14: active? ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-17; known on 2012-09-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-17.

HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be used to create a dementor. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.

HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 18 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.

By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-16; known in 7 days.

Copper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. —Michael Pettis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-17.

DNB/nicotine day 13: active? ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-16.

There will be <=3 MLP-related posts on LessWrong in January 2013. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-02-01.

Mars nodules discovered on 9/14/12 will be analyzed and described as carbonate ooids in at least one refereed journal within a year. ( 25% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-09-15; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

I will get my motorcycle license in a week or less. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-15; known on 2012-09-22; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-20.

There'll be press report of “martial law” imposed on the internet by a major country in the next 10 years ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.

There'll be press report of significant protest in China in the next 5 years against anti-Chinese video released on the internet. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-01.

There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.

Fed will change the monthly QE3 purchase size/type by Feb 2014 (now $40b MBS a month) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.

By the end of the year, NASA will announce that spherical objects discovered by its Opportunity rover on 9/14 are geological rather than biological in origin. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-19.

The recent proof of the nature of the pattern of prime numbers is fatally flawed, and this flaw will be revealed before march 1st, 2013. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JohnWittle on 2012-09-14; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-03-01.

Fed: Unemployment won't reach 7% until 2014 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07.

Conditional upon the website existing and the NFL season occuring (and of course, the world not ending), Stephen Hill (NYJ) will be rated in the top 50 WR's at http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/wr.php next year on July 15. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Porejide on 2012-09-14; known on 2013-07-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-07-15.

I will become student senator ( 75% confidence )

Created by huggins on 2012-09-14; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by huggins on 2012-10-18.

DNB/nicotine day 12: active? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-14; known on 2012-09-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-14.

I will have finished reading “Four Witnesses: The Early Church in Her Own Words” by Oct. 31st ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jakewalker on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by jakewalker on 2012-10-31.

I will have finished reading up through the latest chapter HPMOR by Oct. 1st ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jakewalker on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-19.

There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-15.

Bettina and Christian Wulff will divorce before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2012-09-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-01-07.

Violent crimes in NY going up (2013 rate > 2011 rate by more than 10%) ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.

DNB/nicotine day 11: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-09-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-13.

PG will not reply to Eliezer's question on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4510702 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sdr on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-09-17; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-09-17.

There will be a Sydney compDesGrp session within 6 weeks. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-10-24; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-10-24.

DNB/nicotine day 10: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-09-12; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-12.

After making this prediction, the PredictionBook.com backend will allow me to transition it from public to private. ( 10% confidence )

Created by John Maxwell IV on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by John Maxwell IV on 2012-09-11.

If I buy a new Honda Rebel this month, then I won't pay more than $3,700 for it. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-30.

If I trade in my 2006 Scion tC this month, then I will get equal to or greater than $5,600 for it. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-26.

DNB/nicotine day 9: active? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-11.

If a large random portion of the Afghanistan population is forced to change gender presentation (the “sneetch” solution) by 2015, by 2018 the country will have passed anti-gender-discrimination laws for employment, housing, and education. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by puritan on 2012-09-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

My extortionist will reply and attempt a different extortion. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.

My extortionist will reply at all. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.

Microsoft will buy Nokia. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bknakker on 2012-09-10; known on 2014-09-01; judged right by bknakker on 2013-09-09.

In 2012, Obama will lose only one state that he won in 2008. ( 40% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

US unemployment rate below 8% by the 2012 election (last reported number before the election) ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02.

The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Konkvistador on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Athrelon on 2012-12-30.

The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >100 comments ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrelon on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2012-09-12.

Eliezer's Sequences will be published by the Singularity Institute as an ebook (in Kindle, PDF, or iBooks format) sometime between Nov. 1st 2012 and Mar. 1st 2013. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2013-03-02.

The Open Thread post at Less Wrong will be posted four times a month rather than its current twice a month within a year. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 37 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-09-08; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-30.

PredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2013-07-01.

NYTimes: David Brooks will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.

NYTimes: Charles Blow will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.

NYTimes: Ross Douthat will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.

NYTimes: Thomas Friedman will make a (charitably) a testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.

NYTimes: Bill Keller will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.

NYTimes: Paul Krugman will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.

I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.

In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.

Obama will win election ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lepido on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.

The self-referentiality of this prediction will have significant consequences by the end of September 2012 ( 0% confidence )

Created by zeropercent on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by zeropercent on 2012-10-01.

I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.

I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 5 years. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2017-09-07.

I will be able to leave office before 6pm everyday this week. ( 20% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-13; judged right by williamycai on 2012-09-14.

No additional changes will be made to my design project after Tues ( 10% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-12.

I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.

DNB/nicotine day 8: active? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-07.

Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Filipe on 2012-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Filipe on 2012-09-09.

Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats in 2016. ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Dapple on 2016-09-03.

Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.

LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.

LSD: My trip will be generally positive (and not a 'bad trip'). ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-21.

LSD: I will experience a partial or fully mystical experience. ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-21.

I will not end up buying premium cat food tomorrow… and my mew mews' have to eat supermarket grade food for the day.. ( 5% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-08; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-07.

I will have read Ryan's Atlas Shrugged by 2 weeks time. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by williamycai on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-20; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-20.

I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-27.

DNB/nicotine day 7: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-06.

I will cease to identify as an atheist after my LSD trip. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-06; known on 2013-03-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-21.

I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.

I will be visited or questioned or arrested by police over my LSD order. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-05.

My LSD order will arrive. ( 90% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-21.

My LSD order will arrive within 2 weeks. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-09-20; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-19.

Rothfuss's The Doors of Stone (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2032-02-18.

Silk Road will drop its hedging service by 2013. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

EoE will be released on Bluray in 2015 ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.

EoE will be released on Bluray in 2014 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

EoE will be released on Bluray in 2013 ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-01.

NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2015 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2014 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2013 ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04.

My 'guide to modern classical music' won't be finished by the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

I'll have read through chapter 20 in HPMoR by the end of this month. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.

One week after its release, 'Django Unchained' will hold a score of 80% or above on RottenTomatoes. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

One week after its release, 'The Master' will hold a score of 85% or above on RottenTomatoes. ( 85% confidence )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-09-21; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-09-21.

“The Singularity and Machine Ethics” will have been cited more than 5 times, according to Google Scholar, by the end of 2013. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.

I will be hired as a Civilian Investigation Specialist before 2013. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

I will start a 2nd startup before 2013. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

Statistics

Recent Predictions