Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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LessWrong.ru Slack chat won't move from Slack to another platform until June 2017 ( 80% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by berekuk on 2017-06-01.
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We'll conduct the third applied rationality workshop in Kocherga in October or November 2016 ( 80% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by berekuk on 2016-12-01.
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I'll conduct a training on nonviolent communication for 6+ people in October 2016 ( 90% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by berekuk on 2016-11-01.
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We won't hire any new admins for Kocherga club in 2016 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by berekuk on 2016-10-21.
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Rationalist club Kocherga won't shut down in 2016 ( 70% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by berekuk on 2017-01-01.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2018-12-31.
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US alert warhead loading reduced to 790 at any point on 2018 ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2019-01-01.
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Read 45 or more books this year ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2017-01-01.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2017 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-11.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Hillary next US president ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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No major attack attributable to Anonymous leading to mass death or @BiellaColeman still agrees “Anonymous are not terrorists” ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-24; known on 2018-12-01.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2016-10-01 and 2017-06-01 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-24; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-06-03.
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Stan Stalnaker: 2018 Bots doing around $1T in transactions ( 88% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-23; known on 2018-12-31.
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bitcoin volatility goes very high, with wild % swings in 2017. at least 6 90% swings. ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.
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A new ministry will be created in the Russian government. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-09-22.
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Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.
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5 2013-londons worth of urban development gets created in 2017 ( 63% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.
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At least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.
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FISA Section 702 renewed ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.
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TBPL takes over NOIC small business development centre, writes them off as a partner. ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.
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Leah and the FSF will make amends, LibreBoot, including Leah will become GNU Libreboot again ( 11% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.
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Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.
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If elected, Trump's presidency will lead to genocide in Syria by 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ifonlyalabama on 2016-09-19; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by ifonlyalabama on 2016-12-13.
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Hillary will win the presidency ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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I will graduate medical school ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2020-05-16.
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Before 2019, Apple will announce a product that lets you dock/connect an iPhone to a desktop/laptop monitor + keyboard and use it like a desktop or laptop computer ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Promised food at the Latrice Royale opening event Fall '16 by SJE in Trayes Hall will not appear until one hour after doors open (8pm EST) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mmelewinsky on 2016-09-12; known on 2016-09-13.
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The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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I will contract Zika virus any time before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton drops out of the presidential race due to health reasons ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Harry Halpin on the payroll of, or otherwise compromised by the NSA/FVEY ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2026-04-29.
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78da4c28c143411c49c808a02702de83 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23.
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email was about grade ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-09-11; known on 2016-09-11; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-09-11.
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4% of world economy is cryptocurrency governed ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-11; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-31.
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Hillary Clinton wins all 112 electoral votes of the Northeast (New England, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC). ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2018-01-01 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will switch back to Firefox for my primary web browser on my desktop or laptop before 2017-07-01 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-01.
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US + Russia only have 1,150 nuclear warheads as per START treaty ( 47% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-12-31.
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“Russia to meet the New START Treaty central limits in accordance with the stipulated timeline of February 2018” ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-03-01.
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consumer-level (if expensive) 2.5 micron resolution 3d printing in any material ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-12-31.
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Open Phil's ratio of grants between global catastrophic risks and (human-focused) US policy will be higher in 2018 than in 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-05.
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Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-09-07.
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Open Phil makes a grant on meat alternatives within five years. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11.
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The airport in Medellin will take my passport card ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-06; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-09.
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Book 2 of Unsong will end with an interlude this week (September 7). ( 33% confidence )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-05; known on 2016-09-08; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-07.
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https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/source/electric/bug/475181 is still a valid bug in GNU electric 9.06+dfsg-1 ( 94% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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at least 1 person executed for tor use, tor project social contract pivot not ruled out as contributing factor ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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gene swap does happen at HOPE 12 ( 69% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2019-01-01.
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Legal battles over forehead penises, and the rights of the young rebels who choose to have them, begin. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-31.
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51%+ of remaining humanity are muslims ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2046-09-03.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-09-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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Marijuana decriminalized in canada in 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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C++17 released ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.
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My brother quits / is fired from his new job for what I determine to be BS reasons ( 90% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2019-09-01.
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finish this water ( 100% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-09-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2016-09-04.
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Reliance Jio 4G data plans will not cost more than 100 INR/GB in 2017. ( 80% confidence )
Created by volis on 2016-09-01; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by volis on 2017-12-08.
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Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ytarko on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by bendini on 2016-11-09.
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at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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throughout dec 2017, bitcoin officially banned in russia ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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'Islands in the Net' style skin-browning agent made possible through PCR ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-31; known on 2033-01-01.
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For the remainder of the 2016 Presidential Campaign, Trump will not have an approval rating higher than his bounce after the RNC ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-31; known on 2016-11-24; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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>1.561% of global energy use for 2017 will be solar according to IEA ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-31; known on 2018-09-01.
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I will not watch any new episodes of Dark Matter before 2017 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Provably intelligent life (was) on HD164595 ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30; known on 2397-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01.
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There will be more DUI crashes (injury and non-injury) in Austin, TX for the Labor Day 2016 period than the same period in 2015. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2017-12-07.
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Mo-Pac express lanes will not be open and accepting traffic before September 20th, 2016 ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29; known on 2016-09-20; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-09-26.
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Some technology invented after 2017 that actually scares me. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-29; known on 2022-12-31.
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China overtakes EU (Whatever's left of it) in at least 2 of the 3 of: GDP, math PhDs/year, cheesecake produced / capita. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-29; known on 2017-12-31.
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61%+ unemployment, 96%+ water unsafe, over 75k homeless, over 50% of them children, <6 hours/day of electricity in gaza (at least 3 of the above) ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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HRC wins at least one of the following: AZ, GA, MO, MT, SC. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-28; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Libertarian Party candidate gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Gary Johnson gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Gary Johnson wins 2020 presidential election. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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hillary clinton wins the US presidential race ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jal278 on 2016-08-23; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will buy an NVIDIA graphics card before 2018 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-21.
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Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-02.
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Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2034-01-01.
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Throughout 2020, 100% of movies to come out of hollywood will be reboots of old series, only with the genders swapped ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-10.
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joe responded ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-21; known on 2016-08-21; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-21.
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Federal government of Canada passes law banning encryption use ( 54% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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Federal government of Canada passes law mandating divulging passwords ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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someone markets a robotic 'teddy fuxpin' terry ruxpin clone. ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-18; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-12.
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Quora will be bankrupt or acquired by a third party before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sflicht on 2016-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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this computer will boot after successful upgrade from ubuntu 15.10 to 16.04 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-08-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-17.
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Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 67% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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UFC 202: Conor McGregor loses to Nate Diaz ( 57% confidence )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-08-15; known on 2016-08-21; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-08-21.
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The next actor to play The Doctor (on Doctor Who) will be female. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-07-16.
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'weapons of financial mass destruction' trigger collapse in 2017, causing widespread market panic/crisis ( 36% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Ted won't be able to provide me with a way to actually restrict the player universe in an ESPN fantasy football draft to remove the keepers in the next 48 hours. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2016-08-12; known on 2016-08-14; judged right by Porejide on 2016-08-15.
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Nate Silver's “Polls Only” model proves to be the most accurate of 538's three models on election day. ( 60% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-14.
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Hillary wins South Carolina ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Model will finish training before tomorrow moring and not crash. ( 80% confidence )
Created by sacred_datura on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-08-12; judged right by sacred_datura on 2016-08-12.
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It will be generally agreed that a meeting occurred between Trump and the Secret Service during 2016 August regarding his comments on the second amendment. ( 90% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-11; known on 2038-08-11.
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Burr (R-NC) will be re-elected to the senate ( 55% confidence )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Pat McCrory will be re-elected governor ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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The Republicans win the 2016 Florida senate race ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins Georgia ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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weather will be shit today when I'm walking ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-08-11; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-10.