PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
Trump VP pick is Mia Love ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
Trump VP pick is Jeff Sessions ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
Trump VP pick is Mike Pence ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
Trump VP Pick Brian Sandoval ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
Trump pick for VP is Bob Corker ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-12.
Trump pick for VP is Marco Rubio ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
Trump pick for VP is Ben Carson ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
Trump pick for VP is John Kasich ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
Trump choice for VP is Mary Fallin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
Buying LinkedIn will turn out to be a bad decision for Microsoft! ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by hoka on 2016-06-25; known on 2021-06-25; judged wrong by firsthummus on 2021-06-30.
At least one flagship iPhone model announced in 2016 will have a 3.5mm headphone jack on the body of the phone ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
Food scarce in UK: widespread hunger/empty supermarkets for at least a month(ie not single blip due to natural catastrophe) ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24; known on 2018-01-25; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
Sanders endorses Clinton before the democratic convention ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-07-25; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-25.
Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
Theresa May will be the next leader of the Conservative party. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
Boris Johnson will be the next leader of the Conservative Party ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-30.
Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
Brexit margin of victory is >5% for remain ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
Brexit margin of victory is <5% for leave ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
Brexit margin of victory is <5% for remain ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
Cory Booker will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
Julian Castro will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
A man will be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
I read something more important than http://www.visionofearth.org/future-of-humanity/existential-risks/occupy-heaven-potential-humanity-safeguard-future/ today ( 15% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-23.
SPOILER GAME OF THRONES ASOIAF. Pbaqvgvbany ba E+Y=W orvat erirnyrq ba F6R10, gur raqvat fprar jvyy or bs vg orvat erirnyrq. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-29; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
iPhone 7 has USBC ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-21; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07.
I will start showing symptoms of norovirus before the end of the day. ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-21; known on 2016-06-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-21.
Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.
Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2024-01-01.
R+L=J revealed in episode 10 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-06-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-06-30.
ASOIAF: gur nezl bs gur qrnq oernpu gur jnyy ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
ASOIAF Zbgure bs qentbaf unf frk jvgu lnen terlwbl ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
ASOIAF : Onggyr ng Jvagresryy ybfg ol ubhfr fgnex naq jba ol ubhfr obygba ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
Trump picks Newt Gingrich for VP ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-19; known on 2017-01-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bitbatbot on 2016-06-19; known on 2018-01-01.
New Alternative Foundation Successfully Set up by TheDAO Drainer ( 19% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17.
Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
Stein and/or Johnson take more than 1% of the national popular vote. ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15.
TheDAO heist on june 16 winds up forcing rollback/transactions reversed ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-16.
Within two months of halving, bitcoinCAD price doubles ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01.
bitcoinCAD up june 17 2016 ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-06-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18.
ethereumUSD down june 17 2016 ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-06-18; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18.
A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
Elizabeth Warren will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
Trump picks Chris Christie for VP ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
Prince William comes out as gay/bisexual. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-16; known on 2080-01-01.
I will continue to use Emacs, StumpWM & Screen as my primary workflow for four more years ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by ejlflop on 2020-06-16.
Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known on 2021-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-06-18.
GDP growth in china >6.6% in 2016 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-15; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
Gary Johnson will be the next elected President ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
By 2021, iOS/iPad will be/have a full fledged development environment for app development. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by silacoid on 2016-06-14; known on 2021-01-01.
At least one other person will be tripped up by the Credence game question about “the” “A Christmas Carol” movie, a question that assumes that there should be only one film on this page: http://www.imdb.com/find?s=all&q=A+Christmas+Carol ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2016-06-14; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-06.
Bernie Sanders will drop out on or before June 30th ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-06-30; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2016-07-01.
S06E10 ends the same way as the Dance with Dragons epilogue. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
“second attack” in Santa Monica either incorrect/didn't happen, or outright media/government fabrication ( 42% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-13; known on 2019-01-01.
Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2019-01-01.
Inflation rate in june 2017 higher than june 2016 in South Africa. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
Unemployment rate in 2017 worse than 2016 in South Africa ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
Florida shooter shot either independently, or on behalf of dalwa al isalmyya and not Al-Qaeda. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
Canadian government will pass an “Anti-Cyberbullying law”, and this will be used to enforce copyrights ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-10; known on 2041-01-01.
I will win the Euros sweepstake at work. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-07-10; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-25.
Hammersmith Underground is on boundary zone 1/2 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 2 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged right by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 1 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for President ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
Adam's AI will win the AI battleships tournament ( 46% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-06-10; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-10.
Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-07; known on 2066-06-07.
Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
80,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RyanCarey on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-09; judged unknown by RyanCarey on 2016-06-09.
L wins at pokemon against M at the potluck ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-08.
S06E07 Arya was not actually Arya. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-06; known on 2016-06-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13.
Donald Trump to win the US Presidential election with at least 302 electoral votes. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-11-10.
bank of canada sets target for overnight rate 1.36% or higher ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
coinbaseUSD bitcoin price at least 1% higher a week after after block halving than it was before. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
Government of Nova Scotia releases Accessibility legislation that meets CCLA's approval ( 44% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-12-31.
United Ireland by 2020 ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-12.
There will be at least one presidential debate in 2016 that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participate in ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-09.
EW will respond to the message within one month ( 7% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-06-26.
Jacob Appelbaum will kill himself before 2017 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
uniforms aside, I will not wear sweatpants more than half the days in 2019 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-03; known on 2020-01-01.
Noam Tanner will commit to voting for Hillary by October 1. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-08.
Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
In Apple's iPhone announcement in 2016, at least one new iPhone will have a True Tone display ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07.
I will buy a hidpi laptop for my personal use before 2019 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
I will buy an HTC Vive (the version released in May 2016) before 2017 ( 2% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
Wales wins Euro 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-07-07.
I get fired for being pro-boycott/sanction/divestment of Canada / Israel. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-31; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07.
Arya successfully assassinated by the Faceless Men in season 6. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
Drugs are here ( 90% confidence )

Created by wafflepudding on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by wafflepudding on 2016-06-05.
LSH in season 6 ( 75% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
Collette sends song by June 4th (I doubt she will if not by then). ( 10% confidence )

Created by wafflepudding on 2016-05-28; known on 2016-06-04; judged wrong by wafflepudding on 2016-06-05.
Clint Eastwood Trump's VP Pick ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.