PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Hillary Clinton will win Utah ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.

The winner of the 2016 presidential election will recieve over 400 EVs ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by elephantower on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Clinton wins entire eastern seaboard from Maine to Florida. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

One of John McCain or Paul Ryan will publicly withdraw support for Donald Trump in 2 months ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by hoka on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-08.

I will get 100 catches of four balls this year ( 56% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-08-24.

I will get 8 catches of six balls this year ( 43% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-10.

I will get 7 catches of seven balls this year ( 26% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-04.

I will get 15 catches of five balls this year ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-09-07.

I will get 13 catches of five balls this year ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-08-30.

Tico 1. Deliver on time 80% 2. Be well received 70% https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/mobvoi/ticwatch-2-the-most-interactive-smartwatch/description ( 60% confidence )

Created by Shekerev on 2016-08-06; known on 2016-10-16.

There will be at least five polls between the DNC and 2017 where Clinton beats Trump by at least ten points. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-06; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.

The Democrats will win the Nevada senate race ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.

Austin's Kerbey Lane Cafe will begin moving from a magstripe card-based loyalty program to a mobile app loyalty program by 2021. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2021-01-01.

It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

It will be generally agreed that Rush Limbaugh's 2016 contract was for less money than his 2008 contract. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-03; known on 2066-08-16.

The Republican Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.

The Democratic Party wins NC in the 2016 presidential election ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Republicans win between 218 and 230 house seats in 2016 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Republicans win between 231 and 240 house seats in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by elephantower on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-13.

Blunt (R-MO) will win re-election to the US Senate ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by predictit on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of August. ( 20% confidence )

Created by blackRust on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by blackRust on 2016-10-02.

Trump will not lead Clinton in the RCP average by more than 5% at any point in the 2016 election. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-01; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.

Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Secretary of Education Sarah Palin ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

In case Congress ever gets to actually charging President Trump with something sufficiently egregious to warrant Impeachment, a new war begins involving the US ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-21.

At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2022-05-16.

At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.

this prediction should definitely break then > _ > ( 52% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31.

What is today known as the 2016 DNC leak will be generally agreed upon to have been hacked by a Russian Government operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-31; known on 2066-07-30; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-07.

Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by robirahman on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Hillary Clinton wins election. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by matuschoma on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

cd591c54d0bbf69025801fcddf4a85d9 ( 74% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-02.

benadryl 'coma' this weekend due to cleaning cat area ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01.

this prediction will also break. [ You gotta test in production, that's where the action is ]. This is a test just like the last prediction > It's totally a test of whether the bug is triggerable. Are you triggered? d: :d :d d: ( 53% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27.

this prediction will break > ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2016-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27.

[from tue jul 26 until jul 26 or whenever either fork ends] linear regression( abs(ETH_day[i] – ETC_day[i])),(ETC_day[i]+ETH_day[i])/bitcoin_day[i] ) slope is negative and r > 0.5 ( 53% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-23.

By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.

[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2020 (continuous between 2016 and 2020). ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-01-16; judged right by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18.

Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-05.

WWIII will include Turkey as a participant ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2024-01-01.

Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.

Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.

Eastern Latvia becomes its own country/Latvia splits into at least 2 countries ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-26.

Russian “peacekeepers” on the ground in Latvia ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-26.

Uprising/civil strife/coup/etc in latvia makes international headlines ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-26.

France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.

Le Pen elected president of france 2017 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07.

There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of October ( 95% confidence )

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by blackRust on 2016-11-01.

There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of September ( 50% confidence )

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by blackRust on 2016-10-02.

Clinton elected and US civil war ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.

Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.

Gary Johnson will poll above 15% in five national polls. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Difference in average math score on SAT for males and females in 2016 will be less or equal than 10 points. Background: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/gender-barriers/ ( 40% confidence )

Created by rationalnoodles on 2016-07-23; known on 2017-01-01.

Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.

The Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-02-05.

Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16.

Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.

Theresa May triggers Article 50 without the explicit support of Sturgeon, the Scottish parliament, or a second referendum ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.

The Munich shooters turn out to be Muslim ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by bendini on 2016-07-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.

I will pass my exams ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Shekerev on 2016-07-21; known on 2016-10-16.

I will get 8 hours of sleep tonight ( 47% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-22.

Katie McGinty will be elected to the Senate ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-20; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

A working, playable game will result from this week ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-19; known on 2016-07-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.

By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2016-07-18; known on 2026-07-18.

Isle of Skye will be KSdJ 2016 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by Chri on 2016-07-18.

Pandemic Legacy will be KSdJ 2016 ( 55% confidence )

Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by Chri on 2016-07-18.

TIME Stories will be KSdJ 2016 ( 5% confidence )

Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by Chri on 2016-07-18.

Codenames will be SdJ 2016 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by Chri on 2016-07-18.

Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-16; known on 2036-07-17.

Pence is younger than 65 years old ( 80% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-16; known on 2016-07-16; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop but the body she wants is not Sarah Michelle Gellar, Ana, or Aaron. ( 3% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-14.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Aaron ( 2% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-14.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Ana ( 20% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-14.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Sarah Michelle Gellar ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-03.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-03.

Venezuela will announce (not necessarily hold) a recall referendum in 2016 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-02.

Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.

Conditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.

Conditional on the UK Government under Theresa May seeking to invoke Article 50 on the Lisbon Treaty, it will have to be passed through Parliament before being invoked. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-31.

Trump's running mate is Nigel Farrage ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jenson on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.

Jim Justice will win the WV governor race in 2016 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.

Mia Love will be re-elected to the House of Representatives from Utah's 4th district ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.

Paul Ryan will be the next Speaker of the House ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-01-20.

Rajoy will be Spain's next prime minister ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Merrick Garland will fill Scalia's SCOTUS seat ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.

Democrats win undivided control of government in 2016 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.

Democrats win the IN senate seat ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-10.

McCain wins re-election in 2016 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by kuudes on 2016-11-09.

The GOP will keep the senate in 2017 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Undivided government under the Republicans after 2016 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Corbyn will be put on the Labour leadership ballot ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-08-13; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.

Chelsea FC will win a Champions League place in 2016-2017 ( 68% confidence )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by Paul.David.Carr on 2017-05-15.

Augur (Ethereum prediction market) will launch in 2016 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Dapple on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.

Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.

Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.

Owen Smith will be the next Labour leader. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-10-03.

Angela Eagle will be the next Labour leader. ( 15% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-22.

Statistics

Recent Predictions