Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.

  • InTrade estimated 82% on 2009-10-14
  • danb estimated 85% on 2009-10-14
  • InTrade estimated 81% on 2009-10-14
  • stephenh estimated 90% on 2009-10-15
  • ChristianKl estimated 70% on 2009-10-15
  • anonym  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 75% on 2009-10-17
  • Larks estimated 98% on 2009-10-17
  • dshiller estimated 93% on 2009-10-20
  • jes5199 estimated 95% on 2009-10-20
  • freyley estimated 91% on 2009-10-21
  • faws estimated 88% on 2009-10-22
  • wasistdas estimated 40% on 2009-11-10
  • Jack estimated 60% on 2009-11-16
  • drewyallop estimated 95% on 2009-12-06
  • gwern estimated 80% on 2010-07-29
  • kallman estimated 85% and said “Though, we can only hope.on 2010-11-23
  • gwern estimated 10% on 2010-11-26
  • gwern estimated 90% on 2010-11-26
  • stephenh estimated 75% and said “Revising downward based on her continuing popularity.on 2010-12-11
  • Larks estimated 70% on 2011-01-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2011-05-24
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 75% on 2011-07-14
  • Jack estimated 95% on 2011-08-31
  • JoshuaZ said “She has now officially said she isn’t going to run? Can we mark this judged now or should we weight for the official nomination? on 2011-10-07
  • ka estimated 99% on 2011-11-02
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 95% on 2011-11-12
  • NathanMcKnight  judged this prediction right on 2012-09-03.

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