Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Number of T20 international matches in 2015 was at least 20% more than that in 2013 (as per Wikipedia), despite the ODI world cup. (Reasoning: T20I matches seem to be much more common now) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-12; known on 2016-02-14; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-14.
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I will be attempting to get pregnant within a year of my IUD being removed (e.g. IUD removed > other form of BC > trying to conceive; or IUD removed > trying to conceive) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2016-02-13; judged wrong by mad on 2016-02-13.
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HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-02-13.
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I will get a cold in the next week. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-02-13.
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Assuming Romney doesn't win, Paul Ryan will be one of the top 3 candidates in Republican primary for president in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-12; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-02-12.
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Global bear market(90% of stock indices will fall by 20% from 2015 peak) ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-11.
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Gravitational waves will be detected this year. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by kuudes on 2016-02-11.
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I will beat C in the next game of AoE2 we play together. ( 70% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-11; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-11.
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Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-11.
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Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-11.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Spring on 2016-02-10.
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Romney won't be top 3 in 2016 Iowa causes ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-10.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 2 (or more) Kaggle competitions. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 1 (or more) Kaggle competitions. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-09; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-02-10.
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xgboost will be next best ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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I will not watch any more of The Expanse before 2016-02-09 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09.
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I will submit the 3rd DAND project by the end of next weekend ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-08; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-08.
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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016 ( 30% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-08.
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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016 ( 30% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-08.
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By November 30, the snow will fall at St. Petersburg and will stay until at least February 1st. ( 7% confidence )
Created by AvImd on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-02-07; judged wrong by AvImd on 2016-02-07.
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I will change my view on whether PredictionBook should have us mark our predictions “right” or “wrong” or use different language instead in the next 48 hours ( 20% confidence; 29 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-02-06; known on 2016-02-08; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-02-07.
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I will change my view on whether PredictionBook should have us mark our predictions “right” or “wrong” or use different language instead in the next 48 hours ( 20% confidence; 29 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-02-06; known on 2016-02-08; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-02-07.
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jokeocracy will be banned from twitter for a week or longer, before 2017 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-06.
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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016 ( 30% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-08.
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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016 ( 30% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-08.
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'Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence' —Arthur Breitman ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-05.
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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016 ( 30% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-08.
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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016 ( 30% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-08.
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I will finish 2 projects this month ( 40% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by dgray on 2016-02-03.
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I will finish 1 project this month ( 95% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by dgray on 2016-02-03.
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It will not snow in Aderet this week ( 97% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-01-30; judged right by TheBlackFox on 2016-02-03.
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I will be terminated on Monday. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Lissy on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-02-02; judged right by Lissy on 2016-02-02.
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Bharat will be the 2nd largest smartphone market globally by 2017 — Strategy Analytics, IDC. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19; known on 2017-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-02.
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Trump sweeps first four primaries. ( 20% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-02.
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The standard unemployment rate will be below 5% by January 2016. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-02-02.
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Apple's stock price will go above $110 before February 1, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2016-02-02.
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Chris Christie is not going to be within top 3 in Iowa causes in 2016 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-05-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-25; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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Donald Trump will win the Iowa Caucus ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RationalEmpathy on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-02-03; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Donald Trump will lose the Iowa caucuses. ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1814 by February 1, 2016 ( 33% confidence; 22 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.