PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will win at least one additional Giantitp PrC contest before March 2016. ( 55% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-10; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-01.

By 2030, same-sex marriage will be legal everywhere in the US. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-02-23; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by alexneptune on 2016-03-01.

Somerville will declare another snow emergency before March 1. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-01.

I will get an interview for the job I applied for. ( 20% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2016-01-04; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-03-01.

I will buy another book written by Brandon Sanderson before next March. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-01.

The Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000, but David Sirlin will throw in the white and purple tokens anyway. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-03-04; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-01.

The Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-01.

David Leyonhjelm will not be a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Law Enforcement on March 1, 2016. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-01.

I will be re-hired by the end of the month. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Lissy on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Lissy on 2016-02-29.

Wizards of the Coast will announce a new “From the Vault” Magic set on Monday, February 29th. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

I will submit the fifth DAND project by EOD 2/21 ( 70% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-22; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-29.

I will submit the sixth DAND project by EOD 2/28 ( 67% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-29.

World of Warcraft Warlords of Draenor will be released around the summer. June, July or August. I would bet anything on it! :) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sebbiboy on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-01-08; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

2014: Malaria vaccine enters manufacturing. This vaccine is available in 2015. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

Patricia Millet will be confirmed to the D.C. Circuit within a month ( 80% confidence )

Created by Carnegie on 2013-08-03; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

At least one story in Kazaka Press's Bronies anthology will win a Nebula award in 2013. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-06-06; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

At least one story in Kazka Press's Bronies anthology will be nominated for a 2013 Nebula award. ( 30% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

The big Short will win best picture oscar ( 40% confidence )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-02-27; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

The Big Short win the best film award ( 60% confidence )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

Leo wins an Academy Award. ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

rjlipton.wordpress.com describe a heads heads/tails coin problem on 2016-02-21. They'll state whether the problem is decidable in their next post. ( 50% confidence )

Created by whosyourjay on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

Ceasefire, “truce”, OR no-fly zone imposed in full or in part, in or within an area in Syria or Iraq before April 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-02-27.

I will not get a second interview with my most recent interviewers. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2016-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2016-02-24.

'As for [Korean] reunification, I see it in the next five years.' —B.R. Myers ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-26; known on 2016-02-23; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-23.

D or A will leave something behind. ( 30% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-02-21.

D will travel by car with A tomorrow. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-02-21.

A will beat their record archery score tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-21.

I will be out of my sling in 6 weeks. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-03-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.

I will be out of my sling in 5 weeks. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-02-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.

I will be out of my sling in four weeks. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-02-21; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.

Bernie Sanders will win the Nevada primary ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by silacoid on 2016-02-13; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.

Masdar City phase 1 complete ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.

Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.

Jeb! to be voted President of the United States. Republicans Rule House and Senate as they currently do already! ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-06-19; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.

The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.

Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.

I will give D some food tonight. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-02-22; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-21.

My ex-husband will move out of the state before his 35th birthday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Lissy on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by Lissy on 2016-02-18.

A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.

I will play any of Firewatch before 2016-02-17 ( 95% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-17.

My husband, while sitting on PredictionBook, will ask me yet again what I think the odds are for Hilary or Bernie or Trump, even though he just asked me yesterday. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by SmartArse on 2016-02-16; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16.

A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.

I will submit the fourth DAND project by EOD 2/14 ( 75% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-15.

Santorum won't be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.

Windows phone quarterly sales as a percentage of smartphones sold will eclipse iphone by 4th quarter 2015 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by henchman21 on 2013-10-03; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.

There will be >= 1 valentine's day engagement announcements in my Facebook newsfeed today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.

Today there will be >= 1 posts in my Facebook newsfeed about how Valentine's day is stupid, a secret ploy by corporations, or something something patriarchy. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.

“Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-02-14.

Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire Primary ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-02-08; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-02-14.

India will win the remaining two T20 matches against Sri Lanka (SL T20 tour of India). Pitches will be more spin-friendly than at Pune. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-14.

Statistics

Judged Predictions