Use of marijuana for recreation will be legalized in some/all states of Australia by 2016. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2016-01-01.

A team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015 ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

The Mormon church will decide to cease operating Boy Scout troops or operate troops under a different organization by 2016 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.

Facebook's 2015 revenues will be >$28 billion —Adam Rifkin, TechCrunch ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

'An inevitable by-product of the quantum generator is complete control of matter at the atomic level. Within a few years, because they are more useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

“The world's first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Wooly mammoth resurrected by 2016. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

'10 nanometre chips enter mass production' ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2016 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

I will start a new relationship by the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.

NGE: Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

I will be hospitalised at some point by the end of the year ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.

Apple will buy Hulu. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2015 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka will appear little after 2.0 and have an unimportant off-screen death ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE manga: Sadamoto's manga will conclude as Rei x Shinji ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed to “Kaworu Nagisanami” ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity and will not choose suicide ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill a kitten ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill an Angel ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: There will be no 3rd Impact. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2015 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

By the end of 2015, Madplatypus will self-identify as one of the following: Buddhist, fascist, or anti-natalist. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Madplatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: story completed during Harry's third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg) ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

I will end up assigning a 50% or greater probability to a pro-life position by the end of the year ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.

I will have read 5 novels by the end of this year ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.