PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will not play a single game of chess online the remainder of 2015. ( 68% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-02.

US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers before 2016. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.

No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.

I will weigh 64kg by 2016 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-01-02.

Ansh pushes the complete engine before tomorrow morning. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-02.

I will find deontology convincing as a moral theory at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-02.

In 2015 Go will become a supported development language for Android ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Alex Willmer on 2015-02-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Alex Willmer on 2016-01-02.

US CO2 emissions per capita increase from 2013 to 2014 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-06-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-02.

Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.

ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2015 than it does right now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 8% confidence; 60 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02.

Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. ( 93% confidence; 51 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02.

Anderson Silva will announce his retirement from UFC by January 1st, 2016 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2016-01-02.

Body fat % down to 15% per average of skin caliper method, Barry Sears “Enter the Zone” metric method, and electronic scales method by end of 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.

I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by end 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms texts that I choose. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.

I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. By EOY 2015. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.

I will own Mini Metro at noon on 1/1/2016. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.

Effective Altruism Canberra will have 15 prospective members, allowing them to affiliate with the Australian National University Students Association, by the end of this year. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.

In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.

We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.

State of war has existed between Russian federation and at least one NATO member by 2016-01-01. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry will invent some form of 'metamagic' (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )