JT will defriend me on Facebook by January 1, 2016 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-10.

New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2016. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2016-01-10.

After 10:00 EST today, I will not board a plane for the rest of the year. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Lissy on 2015-12-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Lissy on 2016-01-10.

Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will attempt to stay in office through extra-legal means past her term in office. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-10.

Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.

Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.

Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2016. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.

Google won't offer high speed internet in more than 3 cities by Jan 1 2016 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.

Winter Steam sale will have a discount of at least 20% on Fallout 4. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by timujin on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-02-03; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-07.

Blizzard will release Hearthstone for Windows Phone by the end of this year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-07.

HP MoR: Quirrel's zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2016-01-07.

California will experience a magnitude 6.0 earthquake or stronger in 2015 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-08-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-01-07.

Groupon will be delisted in 2015. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07.

By 2016, at least one reviewer of Haruhi will accept the theory that Kyon is god. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-07.

HP MoR: Dumbledore kills Snape ( 30% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2014-02-27; known on 2016-02-27; judged wrong by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07.

Nicholas Christakis to cease to be Master of Silliman College by January 1, 2016 ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-06.

Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2016 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as of 1st January 2016 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

The Queen will formally abdicate this year ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

Conditional on my not switching programs, I will have declared a CS major by the end of my second year. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Calien on 2016-01-05.

Google will sell smart watches before 2016 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-05.

Argentine peso to be replaced by January 2016 ( 25% confidence )

Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-05.

I will finish “Learn Python the Hard Way” by the end of 2015 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-04.

'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.

The Fed won't raise the rate in 2015 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jdmeagher on 2015-11-07; known on 2016-01-07; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.

“We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S. – from your local corner store to Walmart. We will no longer need to carry a wallet,” PayPal President Scott Thompson ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.

Adrian Fohr will succeed in his effort, 'to get %40 of Intro Microeconomics teachers to use his video blog as a teaching tool.' ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by moore.thunder on 2014-01-24; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by moore.thunder on 2016-01-04.

Oculus will release another development kit VR headset, consumer VR headset, or an alpha/beta consumer VR headset before 2016 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.

I will perform at least 1 set of 20 pull ups before 2016. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.

I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups before 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.

I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups and 1 set of 20 pulls up before 2016. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.

“Russia will just come in to pick up the pieces. I'll give it a 70% chance they'll move in before the year ends.” ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-08; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.

Brent crude above $100/barrel at the beginning of 2016. (http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx) ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2014-12-15; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.