GSoC 2013: “Communicating with mobile devices” ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.

Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high (>$1242.00) in five days or less after exceeding $1068. (Mtgox prices) Both events will occur sometime in 2014. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-11.

I will not place a bet on just-dice.com from now until 2015. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-09.

GSoC 2013: “Overloaded record fields for GHC” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.

Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.

Green Bay will beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08.

“the number of IMAX theaters in the US triples” —dfranke ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-06.

I will not masturbate in the next 24 hours ( 0% confidence )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.

I will not masturbate in the next 24 hours ( 0% confidence )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.

I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.

I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.

I will correctly guess the result of every game in the 2014 NFL Postseason (based on guesses in the comments of this prediction). ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-05.

“By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.” ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.

I will read at least 15 novels of the Maria-sama ga Miteru series in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.

I will not fail a single actuarial exam before 2014. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.

“Average Global Temperature for 2013 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-05.

I will weight more than 60 kg at the end of 2013. ( 60% confidence )

Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2014-01-04.

A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by saturn on 2014-01-04.

There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2014. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-04.

BoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-11-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-03.

BoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-11-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-03.

A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal “Information Sciences” by 2013. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.

By the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.

At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.

At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.

At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.

Aronwall will publically state that he drops his belief in Christianity after discussing his belief on his blog with other rationalists before the end of 2013. (See http://lesswrong.com/lw/fyt/wanted_rationalist_pushback/) ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2014-01-03.

Amadou Toumani Toure regains power in Mali ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

iPad market share in Tablets will stay above 50% through November 1 2013 (2 years after Kindle release) ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Bob Mansfield will re-retire by end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Best Buy will be taken private before December 2013 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

General election will occur in Tunisia before the end of 2013 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lilia on 2013-05-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Greece out of Eurozone ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by yahood on 2012-07-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Alex Jones will be implicated in an illicit drug scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Alex Jones will be implicated in a sex scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

EU-Ukraine association agreement to be signed in 2013 (probably Nov.) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-25; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2014-01-02.