PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will be be waitlisted at Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). Receiving no word by this date will be counted as an implicit waitlisting. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mavant on 2013-11-26; known on 2014-01-02; judged right by mavant on 2014-01-02.

I will be rejected from Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mavant on 2013-11-26; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-01-02.

I will be admitted to Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mavant on 2013-11-26; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-01-02.

HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.

S&P 500 at end of 2013 is 1560 or higher ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mwengler on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2014-01-02.

NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2013 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

I will complete a total of at least 24 blog posts in 2013. ( 95% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-02.

“We're forecasting real GDP growth of 3.2 percent for 2010 as a whole, and more robust growth in 2011, 2012 and 2013.” —Christie Romer ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2013 ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

India launches Chandrayaan-2 in 2013 ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

Memristor products will be commercially available in 2013. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

4G standard finalized and official by 2014. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-02.

'Prince Harry becomes the first member of the British royal family to fly in space.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

I will switch from Mnemosyne to Anki by 2014. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2013 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-02.

NGE: in Sadamoto's manga, Shinji will save Asuka from MP Evas, there will be no 3rd Impact, and everyone lives happily ever after ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2013 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-02.

Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Open source MineCraft client by 2014. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

The spot price of silver will be $50/troy oz. or more at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

The spot price of gold will exceed $2000/troy oz. at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

HP MoR: We won't know who framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction inspired by http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-06-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-02.

Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.

I will have read at least 35 books during 2013. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-01-01.

I will have read at least 30 books during 2013. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-01-01.

My favorite (fiction) book will be “Earth Abides” on January 1, 2014. ( 90% confidence )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2014-01-01.

I will have read at least 25 books during 2013. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2015-06-23.

At least one of my two Samsung HDDs will fail before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2014-01-01.

A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-01-01.

By January 1, the “Sleepless in Austin” guy will be revealed as a troll. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 20,000 comment karma on Reddit. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 100 link karma on Reddit. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 15,000 comment karma on Reddit. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 13,000 comment karma on Reddit. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 500 karma on Less Wrong. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

Connie Srinivasan will visit Louisiana in 2013. If she does, I get $60. If not, I give her $10. ( 17% confidence )

Created by GuySrinivasan on 2012-11-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by GuySrinivasan on 2014-01-01.

I will not publish an NYT bestseller in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 23 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.

“The Singularity and Machine Ethics” will have been cited more than 5 times, according to Google Scholar, by the end of 2013. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.

I'll still be a physicalist throughout 2013. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.

I will reach 200 followers on Twitter by the end of 2013. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2014-01-01.

John Green will not publish a book in 2013. (Novellas written for charity don't count.) ( 90% confidence )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-23; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-01-01.

Plastic lightbulbs will be for sale by the start of 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20553143 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-12-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2014-01-01.

My father will beat my mother in a game of Stratego. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

the special wonderful thing will happen ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Grognor on 2013-09-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-01.

I will have read at least 40 books during 2013. ( 1% confidence )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-01-01.

EoE will be released on Bluray in 2013 ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-01.

Ozy will get back together with internet feminism by 2014 ( 68% confidence )

Created by shlevy on 2013-07-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by shlevy on 2014-01-01.

Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.

Statistics

Judged Predictions