Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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On The Office (US), the Scranton Strangler will be revealed during the final season to be a character we have seen before on the show. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.
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The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Remus Lupin ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Sirius Black ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Voldemort ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Harry ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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I will have submitted my paper on Artin repreentations by 11:30 AM EST Monay ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-20; known on 2013-06-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-28.
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Zhang's bound reduced to 50,000 by June 29,2013 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-20; known on 2013-06-29; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-28.
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The US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in Hollingsworth v. Perry (the Prop 8 case) ( 55% confidence )
Created by Pfft on 2013-01-22; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by Pfft on 2013-06-26.
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The US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in United States vs Windsor (the DOMA case). ( 80% confidence )
Created by Pfft on 2013-01-22; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Pfft on 2013-06-26.
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Rep. Edward Markey (D) defeats Gabriel Gomez® in the Massachusetts Senate special election ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-06-26; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-26.
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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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The Magic: the Gathering block “Theros” will be Classical/Greek/Roman/Hellenistic themed. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-06-23.
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My final grade in THINK25 will be an A. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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My final grade in Spanish will be an A. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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My final grade in Math108 will be a B+. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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My final grade in CS161 will be an A. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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AAPL share prices will reach $700 before December 2013 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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Created by zozo on 2013-05-14; known on 2013-06-15; judged right by zozo on 2013-06-17.
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Microsoft will release an official “Start menu” app for Windows 8 by June 2013 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bknakker on 2012-10-18; known on 2013-06-16; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-06-16.
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US obesity is going down (2012 “obesity” as measured by government health data will be lower than the percentage in 2011) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2013-02-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Facebook will be worth $100 Billion. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asdasdqwe on 2012-06-11; known on 2013-06-11; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Kobe will average less than 24 pts a game in 2012-13 NBA season ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-10; known on 2013-06-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Lebron won't be MVP of NBA 2013 season ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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China will be the biggest smartphone app market by beginning of 2013 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, Tim Geithner won't continue as treasury secretary ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, Tim Geithner won't continue as treasury secretary ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Fight over debt ceiling in Spring of 2013 will cause 1 or more of the 3 major ratings agencies (S&P, Moody, Fitch) to downgrade US govt debt ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Cyprus will still be subject to capital controls a month from now (until 5/1/2013) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-27; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Gene Munster + Brian White: APPL price target of > $910 by May 2013 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Within two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.). ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-06-12; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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A “reformist” will be elected president of Iran ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-13; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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A “reformist” will be elected president of Iran ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-13; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Logs from Tesla Motors will vindicate Elon Musk and the Tesla Model S. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by procran on 2013-06-14.
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The Supreme Court will overturn the ability to patent genes. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-13.
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I predict An1 exam is 3 hours long and re-exam is 4 hrs. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mossa Nova on 2013-06-11; known on 2013-06-11; judged wrong by Mossa Nova on 2013-06-11.
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Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by holycow81 on 2013-06-09.
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Regardless of who wins the election, there'll be a major “debt deal” before mid 2013 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.
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Within two months of making this prediction, US President Obama will sign into law some form of bipartisan immigration reform. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08; known on 2013-06-08; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.
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There exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035 ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-06.
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Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-03; known on 2013-06-03; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-03.
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Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-03; known on 2013-06-03; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-03.
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Ironman 3 will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 322.2m) ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-06-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-03.
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CP does not comment on 'literally' in Double Standards 'cut' line explanation. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-06-03.
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Yahoo will buy Tumblr for over $1b. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-19; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-06-02.
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The drought will change opinions re: climate change in the U.S. (measured by 2013 Gallup poll vs. 2012 Gallup poll > +3%) ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-02.
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Valerie Jarett will not be White House Chief of Staff ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-02.