Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor poverty. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor existential risk as their top cause. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor animal welfare as their top cause. ( 1% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor poverty as their top cause. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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30 copies of the “Further reading an exercises” will be sufficient at the talk on intermediate complexity classes at the Less Wrong meetup. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-14.
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There is an mobile version of the PredictionBook website as of July 13th, 2013 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14.
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There is no PredictionBook app nor official quicklink for a mobile version of PredictionBook as of July 13th, 2013. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14.
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There is no PredictionBook app as of July 13th 2013. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14.
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Facebook will cut off API access to Hangtime if the product gets “too popular” (> 5 mil users) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-13.
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Cyprus will still be subject to capital controls three months from now (until 7/1/2013) ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-27; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-13.
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HP MoR: Sybil Trelawney will prophesy the unspoken ch63 prophecy when she comes within earshot of Harry ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-13.
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No confirmed sightings of Snowden in Moscow in the next month ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-12.
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I will go to England this summer ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-03; known on 2013-07-11; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-12.
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HP MoR: Harry will stay at Hogwarts during Easter and his parents will visit him ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Muke Tever on 2013-07-11.
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I will pass my Ohio Driver's Licensee Test today. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-10; known on 2013-07-10; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-10.
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Lauren McNamara will be dropped as a witness for the defense in the trial against Bradley Manning. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-07-09.
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If Will Newsome reads 'A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy' by William B. Irvine within the next 3 months, then upon completing it he will not wish that he hadn't read it. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-09.
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Bitcoin is exchanged at or below $2 by early July ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2013-04-03; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-07-08.
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4th grade SC science quiz is an actual quiz from an actual school. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-07-08.
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Anyone in #lesswrong-prog will have a rudimentary or better “Vine for Audio” accessible online before 2013-07-08 00:00 UTC ( 9% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-07-08.
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VLDL is associated with transfat and not with carbs such as fructose ( 70% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2013-07-05; known on 2013-07-06; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2013-07-06.
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VLDL is associated with transfat and not with carbs such as fructose ( 70% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2013-07-05; known on 2013-07-06; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2013-07-06.
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My lungs will not be hurting. ( 30% confidence )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-07-06; known on 2013-07-06; judged wrong by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-07-06.
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HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall said “Not your fault” in Chapter 89. ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-06.
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“About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008.” —Kevin Kelly ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-08; known on 2013-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-05.
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The minecraft apocalypse server (reddit/r/mcapoc) will be wiped in the next year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Danny_Hintze on 2013-07-05.
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By the end of June 2013 I will have donated at least six thousand US dollars to either Effective Animal Activism (part of 80000 Hours) or some other organization that I believe is most cost effective. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Pablo on 2013-07-05.
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Grantland: Durant will hit 50-40-90 club in NBA 2012-13 season ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by fistpo on 2013-07-05.
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HP MoR: During the current crisis, after (in real time) end of chapter 89, no potentially dangerous person or creature will be loose and alone anywhere in Hogwarts where a student would normally be. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Robert on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-07-02; judged wrong by Robert on 2013-07-04.
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Morsi will be out of power by December 1, 2013 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by phreeza on 2013-07-04.
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HP MoR: ch90 will involve a use of a Time-Turner by any party. ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-08-30; judged right by nigr on 2013-08-15.
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HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-07-04; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-02.
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HP MOR: Ch 90 will imply that sanity of Harry was damaged in the way that it isn't obvious that we should root for him as opposed to his foes. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bt_uytya on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-07-02; judged wrong by bt_uytya on 2013-07-02.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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Neither Highlight nor Circle will get big (i.e. become a big public company or exit for > $100m) ( 90% confidence )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Reddit: guy who signed birth certificate of another man's child will get sued for child support before 2013. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success and will have solid long-term data to back it up. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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The Indiana-Michigan border radiation anomaly will turn out to be the result of a secret nuclear test. ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dain on 2012-06-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Turkey / NATO war with Syria. ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by khorporative on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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kalla724 will write a technical post debunking cryonics ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-09; known on 2013-06-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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“Butterfly Labs ASIC will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule” —Bets of Bitcoin ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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The Boston Bomber will be tried in Civilian Courts ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Facebook ($FB) will buy RIM ($RIMM) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Curiosity discovers ancient life forms in Martioian soil ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Within 6 months, a nationally-known Democratic strategist, pundit, or politician will claim that Obama's performance in the first 2012 debate was a clever strategy to lower expectations. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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PredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2013-07-01.
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Toby will be revealed as the Scranton Strangler in the final season of The Office (US). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.