Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will take more than 40 grams of kratom until 31.12.2012. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-12-15.
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The Upperthong vs Paddock game will go ahead ( 50% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-11-30; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by onthestairs on 2012-12-14.
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fulham will beat newcastle ( 60% confidence )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-12-10; known on 2012-12-10; judged right by onthestairs on 2012-12-14.
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NFL: The Cinncinati Bengals will beat the Philadephia Eagles in Week 15 of the 2012 season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-13; known on 2012-12-14; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-14.
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Google maps app for iPhone 5 won't be launched by end of 2012 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13.
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Firefox's latest stable version number will at least double in 2012 ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by slikts on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by stephenh on 2012-12-13.
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Created by Matt on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-12-13.
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The world will end on 12 December 2012. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2012-12-13; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-13.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 7: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-11; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-11.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 11th 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-11; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-11.
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NFL: New England Patriots will beat Texas Texans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-11.
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I will use predictionbook at least 5 times in the next month ( 80% confidence )
Created by ohAitch on 2012-11-10; known on 2012-12-10; judged wrong by ohAitch on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Tampa Bay Bucs will beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: SF 49ers will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Detroit Lions in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: NY Giants will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: St. Louis Rams will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars will beat the NY Jets in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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papermachine will buy Grognor a monocle on or by December 7, 2012 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-04-18; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-12-09.
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NFL: The Denver Broncos will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 14 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-06; known on 2012-12-07; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-07.
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Average 7 day ROI across all B AW Cs will be >200% within 3 weeks. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-12-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-12-07.
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I will be visited or questioned or arrested by police over my LSD order. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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44 views will show up in YouTube analytics tomorrow to match Insight API reports. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05.
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The sun will rise tomorrow ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xtat on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 6: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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I will study for final exams for >5 hours today ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-05.
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I will get in >10 minutes of walking/running today ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-05.
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I will see a visible color difference in my photographs of my eye before and after iodine supplementation. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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NFL: NY Giants will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-04.
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The initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it's renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 117 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: SF 49ers will beat the St. Louis Rams in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Denver Broncos will beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Philly Eagles in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: GB Packers will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: New England Patriots will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Carolina Panthers will beat the KC Chiefs in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.