Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
-
Stock market will not crash before the next US presidential elections ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ufo42 on 2012-05-28; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will be reelected. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by DetroitDan on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
In 2012, Obama will lose only one state that he won in 2008. ( 40% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Obama will be re-elected on the 2012 presidential election. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gusl on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Yu Darvish will have a good year (>150 innings, <4 ERA) ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
President Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012. ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-11-11; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Ron Paul will win the electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will be re-elected President of the United States of America ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
-
Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
-
Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
-
Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
-
Neither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
-
In the 2012 election, Obama will pick up at least one state he didn't win in 2008. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
-
Obama will win the 2012 United States presidential Elections. ( 86% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama elected president in 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Solvent on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will win Ohio's electoral votes in the 2012 election. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012. ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SilentWarrior on 2010-09-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Obama is going to be re-elected as president in 2012. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by Jach on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential Election ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by SaramMueller on 2012-10-24; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by Jach on 2012-11-07.
-
The Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
-
Democrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-12-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
The Republican Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Donald Trump won't pay out on his $5m offer to Obama to release educational transcripts ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will win reelection. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheHumanite on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will be reelected in the next US election. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 69% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
Obama will win Ohio ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
The TV networks will call the election (for one or the other candidate) before midnight pacific time. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Romney will win Florida ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
Obama will win Colorado ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
-
Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
-
Romney-Ryan won't win Wisconsin in 2012 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Beyond 2011 and 2010, Romney will eventually release more tax returns before the election. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Linda McMahon (wife of wrestling CEO) won't win seat as Connecticut senator ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 73 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-06.
-
No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%) —knb ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.
-
DNB/nicotine day 37: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-04; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.
-
I will finish mixing my song in 3 days ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by SorcererofDM on 2012-10-31; known on 2012-11-03; judged wrong by SorcererofDM on 2012-11-03.
-
DNB/nicotine day 36: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2012-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-03.